Astronomical monitoring networks using ground- and space-based telescopes continue to track near-Earth objects with high precision, identifying no asteroids capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy during 2026. Advanced surveys such as Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey, combined with AI-assisted orbit calculations, maintain comprehensive coverage of potential threats, reinforcing trader consensus around the 88% “No” probability. No official alerts or trajectory updates from NASA or ESA have emerged in recent months, and historical impact rates for objects of this scale remain extremely low. Key upcoming catalysts include continued data from the NEO Surveyor mission and routine orbital refinements, though none are expected to alter the current low-risk outlook before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12% tsansa
$202,236 Vol.
$202,236 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% tsansa
$202,236 Vol.
$202,236 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Astronomical monitoring networks using ground- and space-based telescopes continue to track near-Earth objects with high precision, identifying no asteroids capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy during 2026. Advanced surveys such as Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey, combined with AI-assisted orbit calculations, maintain comprehensive coverage of potential threats, reinforcing trader consensus around the 88% “No” probability. No official alerts or trajectory updates from NASA or ESA have emerged in recent months, and historical impact rates for objects of this scale remain extremely low. Key upcoming catalysts include continued data from the NEO Surveyor mission and routine orbital refinements, though none are expected to alter the current low-risk outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$202,236Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Astronomical monitoring networks using ground- and space-based telescopes continue to track near-Earth objects with high precision, identifying no asteroids capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy during 2026. Advanced surveys such as Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey, combined with AI-assisted orbit calculations, maintain comprehensive coverage of potential threats, reinforcing trader consensus around the 88% “No” probability. No official alerts or trajectory updates from NASA or ESA have emerged in recent months, and historical impact rates for objects of this scale remain extremely low. Key upcoming catalysts include continued data from the NEO Surveyor mission and routine orbital refinements, though none are expected to alter the current low-risk outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$202,236Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Astronomical monitoring networks using ground- and space-based telescopes continue to track near-Earth objects with high precision, identifying no asteroids capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy during 2026. Advanced surveys such as Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey, combined with AI-assisted orbit calculations, maintain comprehensive coverage of potential threats, reinforcing trader consensus around the 88% “No” probability. No official alerts or trajectory updates from NASA or ESA have emerged in recent months, and historical impact rates for objects of this scale remain extremely low. Key upcoming catalysts include continued data from the NEO Surveyor mission and routine orbital refinements, though none are expected to alter the current low-risk outlook before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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