Recent monitoring data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show no confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-September 2026, positioning zero events at 37.5% market-implied probability while one eruption leads at 55.5%. Historical rates average 0.5–1 such events annually, based on plume heights of 10–25 km or ejecta volumes exceeding 0.1 km³ on the VEI scale. Ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru remains below threshold, though early September explosive plumes from Anak Krakatau reaching 15 km altitude represent a potential candidate under review. Updated GVP cumulative figures expected by early 2027 will resolve the market, with any late-year intensification at restless stratovolcanoes able to shift odds toward one or two events.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIlang malaking pagsabog ng bulkan (VEI ≥4) sa 2026?
Ilang malaking pagsabog ng bulkan (VEI ≥4) sa 2026?
1 56%
0 43%
3 7.8%
2 6.7%
$1,164,333 Vol.
$1,164,333 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
55%
2
7%
3
8%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 56%
0 43%
3 7.8%
2 6.7%
$1,164,333 Vol.
$1,164,333 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,859 Vol.
38%
1
$274,845 Vol.
55%
2
$46,002 Vol.
7%
3
$32,113 Vol.
8%
4
$35,623 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,891 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent monitoring data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show no confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-September 2026, positioning zero events at 37.5% market-implied probability while one eruption leads at 55.5%. Historical rates average 0.5–1 such events annually, based on plume heights of 10–25 km or ejecta volumes exceeding 0.1 km³ on the VEI scale. Ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru remains below threshold, though early September explosive plumes from Anak Krakatau reaching 15 km altitude represent a potential candidate under review. Updated GVP cumulative figures expected by early 2027 will resolve the market, with any late-year intensification at restless stratovolcanoes able to shift odds toward one or two events.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,164,333Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent monitoring data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show no confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-September 2026, positioning zero events at 37.5% market-implied probability while one eruption leads at 55.5%. Historical rates average 0.5–1 such events annually, based on plume heights of 10–25 km or ejecta volumes exceeding 0.1 km³ on the VEI scale. Ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru remains below threshold, though early September explosive plumes from Anak Krakatau reaching 15 km altitude represent a potential candidate under review. Updated GVP cumulative figures expected by early 2027 will resolve the market, with any late-year intensification at restless stratovolcanoes able to shift odds toward one or two events.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,164,333Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monitoring data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show no confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-September 2026, positioning zero events at 37.5% market-implied probability while one eruption leads at 55.5%. Historical rates average 0.5–1 such events annually, based on plume heights of 10–25 km or ejecta volumes exceeding 0.1 km³ on the VEI scale. Ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru remains below threshold, though early September explosive plumes from Anak Krakatau reaching 15 km altitude represent a potential candidate under review. Updated GVP cumulative figures expected by early 2027 will resolve the market, with any late-year intensification at restless stratovolcanoes able to shift odds toward one or two events.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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