Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (64% implied probability) due to the low global baseline rate of such events—historically averaging roughly 0.5–1 per year based on Smithsonian and USGS records—combined with no confirmed large explosive episodes through July. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, criteria met only by Plinian or sub-Plinian events that remain infrequent even at frequently active systems. Current monitoring from agencies like the USGS and PHIVOLCS shows mostly lower-level unrest or smaller ongoing eruptions (e.g., Lewotobi, Mayon) without precursors indicating rapid escalation to VEI 4 thresholds. With roughly five months remaining, the market assigns only 18.5% odds to exactly one such eruption, reflecting both the statistical rarity and lack of near-term indicators from official alert networks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIlang malaking pagsabog ng bulkan (VEI ≥4) sa 2026?
Ilang malaking pagsabog ng bulkan (VEI ≥4) sa 2026?
0 69%
1 18%
2 4.3%
4 1.0%
$1,153,157 Vol.
$1,153,157 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
63%
1
18%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 69%
1 18%
2 4.3%
4 1.0%
$1,153,157 Vol.
$1,153,157 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$498,486 Vol.
63%
1
$273,574 Vol.
18%
2
$40,520 Vol.
4%
3
$31,127 Vol.
1%
4
$34,668 Vol.
1%
5+
$274,782 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (64% implied probability) due to the low global baseline rate of such events—historically averaging roughly 0.5–1 per year based on Smithsonian and USGS records—combined with no confirmed large explosive episodes through July. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, criteria met only by Plinian or sub-Plinian events that remain infrequent even at frequently active systems. Current monitoring from agencies like the USGS and PHIVOLCS shows mostly lower-level unrest or smaller ongoing eruptions (e.g., Lewotobi, Mayon) without precursors indicating rapid escalation to VEI 4 thresholds. With roughly five months remaining, the market assigns only 18.5% odds to exactly one such eruption, reflecting both the statistical rarity and lack of near-term indicators from official alert networks.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,153,157Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (64% implied probability) due to the low global baseline rate of such events—historically averaging roughly 0.5–1 per year based on Smithsonian and USGS records—combined with no confirmed large explosive episodes through July. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, criteria met only by Plinian or sub-Plinian events that remain infrequent even at frequently active systems. Current monitoring from agencies like the USGS and PHIVOLCS shows mostly lower-level unrest or smaller ongoing eruptions (e.g., Lewotobi, Mayon) without precursors indicating rapid escalation to VEI 4 thresholds. With roughly five months remaining, the market assigns only 18.5% odds to exactly one such eruption, reflecting both the statistical rarity and lack of near-term indicators from official alert networks.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,153,157Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (64% implied probability) due to the low global baseline rate of such events—historically averaging roughly 0.5–1 per year based on Smithsonian and USGS records—combined with no confirmed large explosive episodes through July. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km, criteria met only by Plinian or sub-Plinian events that remain infrequent even at frequently active systems. Current monitoring from agencies like the USGS and PHIVOLCS shows mostly lower-level unrest or smaller ongoing eruptions (e.g., Lewotobi, Mayon) without precursors indicating rapid escalation to VEI 4 thresholds. With roughly five months remaining, the market assigns only 18.5% odds to exactly one such eruption, reflecting both the statistical rarity and lack of near-term indicators from official alert networks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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