NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists zero potential Earth impacts for 2026, anchoring trader consensus at a 96.5% implied probability for no 1-megaton TNT-equivalent meteor strike this year. This energy release corresponds to a roughly 25-meter stony near-Earth object (NEO) undergoing airburst, events occurring historically about once per century based on satellite bolide surveys and analogs like the 0.5-megaton Chelyabinsk event. Recent 2026 close approaches, such as the bus-sized 2026 EG1 passing 198,000 miles away in March, posed no collision risk. Ongoing NEO surveys by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS maintain high detection rates for objects above 30 meters, leaving minimal uncertainty from rare undiscovered fast-movers; a late detection of such a threat remains the sole realistic scenario to shift odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$104,450 Vol.
$104,450 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$104,450 Vol.
$104,450 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists zero potential Earth impacts for 2026, anchoring trader consensus at a 96.5% implied probability for no 1-megaton TNT-equivalent meteor strike this year. This energy release corresponds to a roughly 25-meter stony near-Earth object (NEO) undergoing airburst, events occurring historically about once per century based on satellite bolide surveys and analogs like the 0.5-megaton Chelyabinsk event. Recent 2026 close approaches, such as the bus-sized 2026 EG1 passing 198,000 miles away in March, posed no collision risk. Ongoing NEO surveys by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS maintain high detection rates for objects above 30 meters, leaving minimal uncertainty from rare undiscovered fast-movers; a late detection of such a threat remains the sole realistic scenario to shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$104,450Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists zero potential Earth impacts for 2026, anchoring trader consensus at a 96.5% implied probability for no 1-megaton TNT-equivalent meteor strike this year. This energy release corresponds to a roughly 25-meter stony near-Earth object (NEO) undergoing airburst, events occurring historically about once per century based on satellite bolide surveys and analogs like the 0.5-megaton Chelyabinsk event. Recent 2026 close approaches, such as the bus-sized 2026 EG1 passing 198,000 miles away in March, posed no collision risk. Ongoing NEO surveys by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS maintain high detection rates for objects above 30 meters, leaving minimal uncertainty from rare undiscovered fast-movers; a late detection of such a threat remains the sole realistic scenario to shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$104,450Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists zero potential Earth impacts for 2026, anchoring trader consensus at a 96.5% implied probability for no 1-megaton TNT-equivalent meteor strike this year. This energy release corresponds to a roughly 25-meter stony near-Earth object (NEO) undergoing airburst, events occurring historically about once per century based on satellite bolide surveys and analogs like the 0.5-megaton Chelyabinsk event. Recent 2026 close approaches, such as the bus-sized 2026 EG1 passing 198,000 miles away in March, posed no collision risk. Ongoing NEO surveys by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS maintain high detection rates for objects above 30 meters, leaving minimal uncertainty from rare undiscovered fast-movers; a late detection of such a threat remains the sole realistic scenario to shift odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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