Recent updates to global CO2 emissions trends and remaining carbon budget estimates from sources like the Global Carbon Project are the main driver behind the 61.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will shift by December 31, 2026. The clock, currently showing roughly 2 years and 336 days remaining based on an assumed ~1% annual emissions rise and a ~275 GtCO2 budget for 67% likelihood of staying below 1.5°C, incorporates the latest observational warming data and emission trajectories. Ongoing monitoring of 2025–2026 fossil fuel and deforestation rates, plus any IPCC-aligned revisions to carbon budgets, can alter the projected date forward or backward. Traders weigh the likelihood of near-term data releases or emission deviations against the historical pattern of annual clock adjustments.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
49% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Jan 1, 2027
49% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent updates to global CO2 emissions trends and remaining carbon budget estimates from sources like the Global Carbon Project are the main driver behind the 61.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will shift by December 31, 2026. The clock, currently showing roughly 2 years and 336 days remaining based on an assumed ~1% annual emissions rise and a ~275 GtCO2 budget for 67% likelihood of staying below 1.5°C, incorporates the latest observational warming data and emission trajectories. Ongoing monitoring of 2025–2026 fossil fuel and deforestation rates, plus any IPCC-aligned revisions to carbon budgets, can alter the projected date forward or backward. Traders weigh the likelihood of near-term data releases or emission deviations against the historical pattern of annual clock adjustments.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$1,066Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2029Binuksan ang Market
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent updates to global CO2 emissions trends and remaining carbon budget estimates from sources like the Global Carbon Project are the main driver behind the 61.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will shift by December 31, 2026. The clock, currently showing roughly 2 years and 336 days remaining based on an assumed ~1% annual emissions rise and a ~275 GtCO2 budget for 67% likelihood of staying below 1.5°C, incorporates the latest observational warming data and emission trajectories. Ongoing monitoring of 2025–2026 fossil fuel and deforestation rates, plus any IPCC-aligned revisions to carbon budgets, can alter the projected date forward or backward. Traders weigh the likelihood of near-term data releases or emission deviations against the historical pattern of annual clock adjustments.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$1,066Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent updates to global CO2 emissions trends and remaining carbon budget estimates from sources like the Global Carbon Project are the main driver behind the 61.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline will shift by December 31, 2026. The clock, currently showing roughly 2 years and 336 days remaining based on an assumed ~1% annual emissions rise and a ~275 GtCO2 budget for 67% likelihood of staying below 1.5°C, incorporates the latest observational warming data and emission trajectories. Ongoing monitoring of 2025–2026 fossil fuel and deforestation rates, plus any IPCC-aligned revisions to carbon budgets, can alter the projected date forward or backward. Traders weigh the likelihood of near-term data releases or emission deviations against the historical pattern of annual clock adjustments.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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