NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists zero potential impactors for 2026, supporting the market's 93.7% implied probability for no 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst this year. Recent safe flybys of small near-Earth objects like car-sized 2026 FM3 in March and house-sized 2026 GD in April, plus a Q1 surge in minor fireballs (largest ~0.026 kt near Houston), underscore robust monitoring with no threats detected. Such events require a ~20-meter undetected bolide, rare given surveys covering most mid-sized NEOs; a surprise discovery or untracked fragment could shift odds, with ongoing NEO observations providing updates.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists zero potential impactors for 2026, supporting the market's 93.7% implied probability for no 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst this year. Recent safe flybys of small near-Earth objects like car-sized 2026 FM3 in March and house-sized 2026 GD in April, plus a Q1 surge in minor fireballs (largest ~0.026 kt near Houston), underscore robust monitoring with no threats detected. Such events require a ~20-meter undetected bolide, rare given surveys covering most mid-sized NEOs; a surprise discovery or untracked fragment could shift odds, with ongoing NEO observations providing updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,136Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists zero potential impactors for 2026, supporting the market's 93.7% implied probability for no 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst this year. Recent safe flybys of small near-Earth objects like car-sized 2026 FM3 in March and house-sized 2026 GD in April, plus a Q1 surge in minor fireballs (largest ~0.026 kt near Houston), underscore robust monitoring with no threats detected. Such events require a ~20-meter undetected bolide, rare given surveys covering most mid-sized NEOs; a surprise discovery or untracked fragment could shift odds, with ongoing NEO observations providing updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,136Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists zero potential impactors for 2026, supporting the market's 93.7% implied probability for no 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst this year. Recent safe flybys of small near-Earth objects like car-sized 2026 FM3 in March and house-sized 2026 GD in April, plus a Q1 surge in minor fireballs (largest ~0.026 kt near Houston), underscore robust monitoring with no threats detected. Such events require a ~20-meter undetected bolide, rare given surveys covering most mid-sized NEOs; a surprise discovery or untracked fragment could shift odds, with ongoing NEO observations providing updates.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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