NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system, along with ESA tracking, show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy release through the remainder of 2026. Refined orbital catalogs and recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk from cataloged bodies, while historical rates for meter-scale bolides yielding this energy average only once every several years globally. With more than half the year elapsed without a qualifying atmospheric entry recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball repository, the remaining timeframe further narrows statistical odds. Only an undetected small asteroid arriving late could alter the outcome, though improved survey sensitivity makes this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 30, 2026
4% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system, along with ESA tracking, show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy release through the remainder of 2026. Refined orbital catalogs and recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk from cataloged bodies, while historical rates for meter-scale bolides yielding this energy average only once every several years globally. With more than half the year elapsed without a qualifying atmospheric entry recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball repository, the remaining timeframe further narrows statistical odds. Only an undetected small asteroid arriving late could alter the outcome, though improved survey sensitivity makes this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,902Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system, along with ESA tracking, show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy release through the remainder of 2026. Refined orbital catalogs and recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk from cataloged bodies, while historical rates for meter-scale bolides yielding this energy average only once every several years globally. With more than half the year elapsed without a qualifying atmospheric entry recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball repository, the remaining timeframe further narrows statistical odds. Only an undetected small asteroid arriving late could alter the outcome, though improved survey sensitivity makes this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,902Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system, along with ESA tracking, show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy release through the remainder of 2026. Refined orbital catalogs and recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk from cataloged bodies, while historical rates for meter-scale bolides yielding this energy average only once every several years globally. With more than half the year elapsed without a qualifying atmospheric entry recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball repository, the remaining timeframe further narrows statistical odds. Only an undetected small asteroid arriving late could alter the outcome, though improved survey sensitivity makes this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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