NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) reports no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact in 2026, based on exhaustive optical and radar surveys plus continuous Sentry system monitoring that assigns negligible cumulative risk over the coming century. Most near-Earth objects larger than about 140 meters have been identified, and statistical models of the remaining population show such energetic events—comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide scaled up—are rare on annual timescales. Recent 2026 fireball detections remain far smaller and harmless. The slim residual probability stems from the chance of an undetected meter-to-tens-of-meters object arriving on a short-warning orbit, though ongoing surveys continue to shrink that window before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update100kt meteor strike in 2026?
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) reports no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton airburst or surface impact in 2026, based on exhaustive optical and radar surveys plus continuous Sentry system monitoring that assigns negligible cumulative risk over the coming century. Most near-Earth objects larger than about 140 meters have been identified, and statistical models of the remaining population show such energetic events—comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide scaled up—are rare on annual timescales. Recent 2026 fireball detections remain far smaller and harmless. The slim residual probability stems from the chance of an undetected meter-to-tens-of-meters object arriving on a short-warning orbit, though ongoing surveys continue to shrink that window before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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