**Sustained Falcon 9 operations at roughly 12–14 missions per month, combined with limited Starship contributions, underpin the strong 83% market-implied probability for 140–159 total SpaceX launches in 2026.** As of mid-September, the company has completed approximately 100–108 flights (mostly Falcon 9, with two Starship tests), placing it on a trajectory for 150–160 missions by year-end—slightly below the 170-record set in 2025 but consistent with high booster reuse rates exceeding 30 flights per vehicle and dual-coast Starlink plus national-security manifests. Recent milestones include the 100th launch milestone crossed in under 240 days, ongoing polar and equatorial Starlink batches, and preparations for Starship Flight 14 (targeted no earlier than mid-September) that could introduce higher-capacity V3 satellites without yet shifting overall cadence. Regulatory approvals, range constraints, and the gradual pivot of some Florida Starlink activity to Starship introduce modest downside risk, while any acceleration in Starship orbital flights or additional customer manifests could push totals higher; however, current model consensus and operational data favor the 140–159 bin as the most probable outcome through December.