SpaceX's shift away from frequent Falcon 9 Starlink missions at Cape Canaveral—now redirected to Starship—has slowed Florida's cadence to roughly two customer or crew flights per month, directly capping September totals. Vandenberg continues regular Falcon 9 polar and sun-synchronous Starlink deployments, while a single Starship Flight 14 test remains the main variable for adding one high-capacity launch from Texas. Confirmed manifests include two early-September Starlink missions, Crew-13, an O3b mPOWER payload, and a potential SDA satellite ride, yielding a baseline of six to eight flights. Traders assign the highest implied probability to under 12 total launches because regulatory timelines, booster turnaround limits, and the deliberate resource reallocation to Starship create downside risk, with 12–13 outcomes still competitive if additional Vandenberg Starlinks or a successful Starship debut materialize. This closely contested range reflects the transition's near-term drag on overall cadence versus SpaceX's historical reuse efficiency.