No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision courses for 2026, per NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, which keeps trader-implied odds for “No” near 75%. Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability, while recent fireballs—including the March 17 Ohio event and others—have registered well below the 5 kt threshold on the NASA JPL repository. Such energetic bolides occur on decadal rather than annual timescales based on historical records of meter-scale objects. Elevated 2026 witness reports stem mainly from improved detection networks rather than higher flux. Ongoing surveys could still flag small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and baseline rates sustain consensus against a qualifying strike.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$306,667 Vol.
$306,667 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$306,667 Vol.
$306,667 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision courses for 2026, per NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, which keeps trader-implied odds for “No” near 75%. Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability, while recent fireballs—including the March 17 Ohio event and others—have registered well below the 5 kt threshold on the NASA JPL repository. Such energetic bolides occur on decadal rather than annual timescales based on historical records of meter-scale objects. Elevated 2026 witness reports stem mainly from improved detection networks rather than higher flux. Ongoing surveys could still flag small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and baseline rates sustain consensus against a qualifying strike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$306,667Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision courses for 2026, per NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, which keeps trader-implied odds for “No” near 75%. Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability, while recent fireballs—including the March 17 Ohio event and others—have registered well below the 5 kt threshold on the NASA JPL repository. Such energetic bolides occur on decadal rather than annual timescales based on historical records of meter-scale objects. Elevated 2026 witness reports stem mainly from improved detection networks rather than higher flux. Ongoing surveys could still flag small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and baseline rates sustain consensus against a qualifying strike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$306,667Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision courses for 2026, per NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, which keeps trader-implied odds for “No” near 75%. Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact probability, while recent fireballs—including the March 17 Ohio event and others—have registered well below the 5 kt threshold on the NASA JPL repository. Such energetic bolides occur on decadal rather than annual timescales based on historical records of meter-scale objects. Elevated 2026 witness reports stem mainly from improved detection networks rather than higher flux. Ongoing surveys could still flag small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and baseline rates sustain consensus against a qualifying strike.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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