No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, which underpins the 73.5% market-implied probability of no strike. Refined orbital models and continuous surveys have kept impact risks negligible, aligning with the low historical frequency of such events—roughly one every few decades globally. Recent increases in smaller fireball detections reflect improved observation rather than elevated threat levels, as these involve meter-scale meteoroids far below the size needed for 5kt energy release. Traders weigh the slim chance of undetected objects against robust planetary defense data, with upcoming telescope observations offering potential updates before year-end.