No at 73.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt or greater bolides—roughly 0.7 events per year from NASA CNEOS fireball records—combined with the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy in 2026. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring by NASA and ESA shows only distant, safe approaches by house-sized asteroids, while recent small pre-impact detections such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 released far below the threshold. Refined orbits have further reduced residual risk without identifying new candidates. Traders therefore assign high probability to resolution as “No” absent an unexpected discovery, with ongoing infrared surveys and fireball network updates providing the next data points before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27% tsansa
$314,099 Vol.
$314,099 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
27% tsansa
$314,099 Vol.
$314,099 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 73.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt or greater bolides—roughly 0.7 events per year from NASA CNEOS fireball records—combined with the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy in 2026. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring by NASA and ESA shows only distant, safe approaches by house-sized asteroids, while recent small pre-impact detections such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 released far below the threshold. Refined orbits have further reduced residual risk without identifying new candidates. Traders therefore assign high probability to resolution as “No” absent an unexpected discovery, with ongoing infrared surveys and fireball network updates providing the next data points before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,099Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 73.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt or greater bolides—roughly 0.7 events per year from NASA CNEOS fireball records—combined with the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy in 2026. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring by NASA and ESA shows only distant, safe approaches by house-sized asteroids, while recent small pre-impact detections such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 released far below the threshold. Refined orbits have further reduced residual risk without identifying new candidates. Traders therefore assign high probability to resolution as “No” absent an unexpected discovery, with ongoing infrared surveys and fireball network updates providing the next data points before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$314,099Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 73.5% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt or greater bolides—roughly 0.7 events per year from NASA CNEOS fireball records—combined with the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy in 2026. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring by NASA and ESA shows only distant, safe approaches by house-sized asteroids, while recent small pre-impact detections such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 released far below the threshold. Refined orbits have further reduced residual risk without identifying new candidates. Traders therefore assign high probability to resolution as “No” absent an unexpected discovery, with ongoing infrared surveys and fireball network updates providing the next data points before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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