Extensive NASA and international monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no confirmed asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of delivering a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2 and several airplane-sized bodies in May–June, passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit with zero impact probability according to JPL trajectory models. While small meteoroids regularly enter the atmosphere—as seen in the minor March 2026 Cleveland event—objects large enough for multi-kiloton energy release remain statistically rare on annual timescales, with no new detections or revised forecasts elevating risk. Ongoing surveys continue to refine catalogs, but current data support the market's strong consensus against a strike this year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$311,320 Vol.
$311,320 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$311,320 Vol.
$311,320 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no confirmed asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of delivering a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2 and several airplane-sized bodies in May–June, passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit with zero impact probability according to JPL trajectory models. While small meteoroids regularly enter the atmosphere—as seen in the minor March 2026 Cleveland event—objects large enough for multi-kiloton energy release remain statistically rare on annual timescales, with no new detections or revised forecasts elevating risk. Ongoing surveys continue to refine catalogs, but current data support the market's strong consensus against a strike this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$311,320Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no confirmed asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of delivering a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2 and several airplane-sized bodies in May–June, passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit with zero impact probability according to JPL trajectory models. While small meteoroids regularly enter the atmosphere—as seen in the minor March 2026 Cleveland event—objects large enough for multi-kiloton energy release remain statistically rare on annual timescales, with no new detections or revised forecasts elevating risk. Ongoing surveys continue to refine catalogs, but current data support the market's strong consensus against a strike this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$311,320Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and international monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no confirmed asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of delivering a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2 and several airplane-sized bodies in May–June, passed safely at distances well beyond lunar orbit with zero impact probability according to JPL trajectory models. While small meteoroids regularly enter the atmosphere—as seen in the minor March 2026 Cleveland event—objects large enough for multi-kiloton energy release remain statistically rare on annual timescales, with no new detections or revised forecasts elevating risk. Ongoing surveys continue to refine catalogs, but current data support the market's strong consensus against a strike this year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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