**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% implied probability rests primarily on historical impact frequency and ongoing NEO monitoring.** A 5 kt TNT-equivalent atmospheric explosion remains relatively uncommon, with base rates indicating such events occur far less than once per year on average; comparable bolides like smaller Chelyabinsk-scale fragments are rarer still. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA surveys report no known objects on collision courses for 2026, while recent close approaches (including 2026 JH2 and 2026 LD2) have all passed safely at lunar distances or greater. Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, yet these remain statistically consistent with smaller objects and have not translated into confirmed 5 kt+ detections. New survey assets such as the NEO Surveyor will improve coverage, but current data gaps for sub-50 m objects preserve modest residual uncertainty without shifting the dominant low-probability outlook.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$306,694 Vol.
$306,694 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$306,694 Vol.
$306,694 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% implied probability rests primarily on historical impact frequency and ongoing NEO monitoring.** A 5 kt TNT-equivalent atmospheric explosion remains relatively uncommon, with base rates indicating such events occur far less than once per year on average; comparable bolides like smaller Chelyabinsk-scale fragments are rarer still. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA surveys report no known objects on collision courses for 2026, while recent close approaches (including 2026 JH2 and 2026 LD2) have all passed safely at lunar distances or greater. Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, yet these remain statistically consistent with smaller objects and have not translated into confirmed 5 kt+ detections. New survey assets such as the NEO Surveyor will improve coverage, but current data gaps for sub-50 m objects preserve modest residual uncertainty without shifting the dominant low-probability outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$306,694Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% implied probability rests primarily on historical impact frequency and ongoing NEO monitoring.** A 5 kt TNT-equivalent atmospheric explosion remains relatively uncommon, with base rates indicating such events occur far less than once per year on average; comparable bolides like smaller Chelyabinsk-scale fragments are rarer still. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA surveys report no known objects on collision courses for 2026, while recent close approaches (including 2026 JH2 and 2026 LD2) have all passed safely at lunar distances or greater. Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, yet these remain statistically consistent with smaller objects and have not translated into confirmed 5 kt+ detections. New survey assets such as the NEO Surveyor will improve coverage, but current data gaps for sub-50 m objects preserve modest residual uncertainty without shifting the dominant low-probability outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$306,694Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% implied probability rests primarily on historical impact frequency and ongoing NEO monitoring.** A 5 kt TNT-equivalent atmospheric explosion remains relatively uncommon, with base rates indicating such events occur far less than once per year on average; comparable bolides like smaller Chelyabinsk-scale fragments are rarer still. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA surveys report no known objects on collision courses for 2026, while recent close approaches (including 2026 JH2 and 2026 LD2) have all passed safely at lunar distances or greater. Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, yet these remain statistically consistent with smaller objects and have not translated into confirmed 5 kt+ detections. New survey assets such as the NEO Surveyor will improve coverage, but current data gaps for sub-50 m objects preserve modest residual uncertainty without shifting the dominant low-probability outlook.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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