Trader consensus implies a 75% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips—by December 31, 2026, driven by recent escalations in multiple infectious disease threats despite no active Level 3 notices currently. Key catalysts include new U.S. clade I mpox cases, such as San Francisco's first confirmed instance last week amid 15 total since late 2024, building on a Level 2 notice for clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia; a massive domestic measles outbreak with 1,748 confirmed cases and 19 outbreaks year-to-date; and March Level 2 activations for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and global polio. These reflect heightened transmission risks and CDC surveillance signaling potential upgrades, with epidemiological updates and outbreak trajectories as pivotal near-term monitors amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateCDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
$112,110 Vol.
$112,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$112,110 Vol.
$112,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 75% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips—by December 31, 2026, driven by recent escalations in multiple infectious disease threats despite no active Level 3 notices currently. Key catalysts include new U.S. clade I mpox cases, such as San Francisco's first confirmed instance last week amid 15 total since late 2024, building on a Level 2 notice for clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia; a massive domestic measles outbreak with 1,748 confirmed cases and 19 outbreaks year-to-date; and March Level 2 activations for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and global polio. These reflect heightened transmission risks and CDC surveillance signaling potential upgrades, with epidemiological updates and outbreak trajectories as pivotal near-term monitors amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$112,110Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies a 75% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips—by December 31, 2026, driven by recent escalations in multiple infectious disease threats despite no active Level 3 notices currently. Key catalysts include new U.S. clade I mpox cases, such as San Francisco's first confirmed instance last week amid 15 total since late 2024, building on a Level 2 notice for clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia; a massive domestic measles outbreak with 1,748 confirmed cases and 19 outbreaks year-to-date; and March Level 2 activations for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and global polio. These reflect heightened transmission risks and CDC surveillance signaling potential upgrades, with epidemiological updates and outbreak trajectories as pivotal near-term monitors amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$112,110Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 75% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 Travel Health Notice—recommending travelers reconsider nonessential trips—by December 31, 2026, driven by recent escalations in multiple infectious disease threats despite no active Level 3 notices currently. Key catalysts include new U.S. clade I mpox cases, such as San Francisco's first confirmed instance last week amid 15 total since late 2024, building on a Level 2 notice for clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia; a massive domestic measles outbreak with 1,748 confirmed cases and 19 outbreaks year-to-date; and March Level 2 activations for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, yellow fever in Venezuela, and global polio. These reflect heightened transmission risks and CDC surveillance signaling potential upgrades, with epidemiological updates and outbreak trajectories as pivotal near-term monitors amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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