Recent progress with Starship V3 vehicles, including multiple Super Heavy booster tower catches, an intact Ship 40 reentry and ocean recovery after Flight 13 in July 2026, and Musk’s assessment that the heat shield is solved, has strengthened confidence in booster reuse. However, the upper stage has yet to attempt a tower catch or complete any reflight, with the first ship reuse now targeted for late 2026 or early 2027. Persistent challenges around rapid turnaround, regulatory approvals for orbital profiles, and the need for demonstrated in-space refueling and repeated full-stack cycles keep the market-implied odds favoring “No” before year-end 2026. Upcoming Flight 14 attempts at ship recovery and any subsequent refurbishment data will serve as key near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.