Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a year-end S&P 500 close below $6,000 at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of the $7,000-$7,500 bin at 23%, reflecting caution amid the index's recent surge to a record 7,126 close on April 17 following eased Iran war tensions that fueled a 4.5% weekly gain. Elevated forward P/E ratios near 21x, sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, and the Fed's March dot plot holding end-2026 fed funds at 3.4%—with resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—underscore valuation and policy risks tempering upside expectations against analyst targets clustering around 7,200-7,600. Key swing factors include April CPI data, Q1 earnings beats, and May FOMC guidance, with breadth lagging the narrow rally vulnerable to reversals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$19,167 Vol.
$19,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
14%
$6,500-$7,000
14%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
12%
>$8,000
11%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$6,500-$7,000 14%
$19,167 Vol.
$19,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,576 Vol.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 Vol.
14%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,869 Vol.
14%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 Vol.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 Vol.
12%
>$8,000
$1,794 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a year-end S&P 500 close below $6,000 at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of the $7,000-$7,500 bin at 23%, reflecting caution amid the index's recent surge to a record 7,126 close on April 17 following eased Iran war tensions that fueled a 4.5% weekly gain. Elevated forward P/E ratios near 21x, sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, and the Fed's March dot plot holding end-2026 fed funds at 3.4%—with resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—underscore valuation and policy risks tempering upside expectations against analyst targets clustering around 7,200-7,600. Key swing factors include April CPI data, Q1 earnings beats, and May FOMC guidance, with breadth lagging the narrow rally vulnerable to reversals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$19,167Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a year-end S&P 500 close below $6,000 at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of the $7,000-$7,500 bin at 23%, reflecting caution amid the index's recent surge to a record 7,126 close on April 17 following eased Iran war tensions that fueled a 4.5% weekly gain. Elevated forward P/E ratios near 21x, sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, and the Fed's March dot plot holding end-2026 fed funds at 3.4%—with resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—underscore valuation and policy risks tempering upside expectations against analyst targets clustering around 7,200-7,600. Key swing factors include April CPI data, Q1 earnings beats, and May FOMC guidance, with breadth lagging the narrow rally vulnerable to reversals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$19,167Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a year-end S&P 500 close below $6,000 at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of the $7,000-$7,500 bin at 23%, reflecting caution amid the index's recent surge to a record 7,126 close on April 17 following eased Iran war tensions that fueled a 4.5% weekly gain. Elevated forward P/E ratios near 21x, sticky March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, and the Fed's March dot plot holding end-2026 fed funds at 3.4%—with resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—underscore valuation and policy risks tempering upside expectations against analyst targets clustering around 7,200-7,600. Key swing factors include April CPI data, Q1 earnings beats, and May FOMC guidance, with breadth lagging the narrow rally vulnerable to reversals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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