Justice Samuel Alito confirmed in August 2026 that he intends to serve another full term on the Supreme Court, directly addressing and cooling prior speculation about his retirement. Clarence Thomas, the oldest justice at 78, has signaled no departure plans despite approaching historical tenure records, while the remaining seven justices range in age from 59 to 72 with no reported health concerns or public indications of stepping down. These statements, combined with the absence of any scheduled vacancies or procedural triggers before year-end, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 76.5% probability against a 2026 opening. Midterm Senate dynamics and confirmation risks have factored into broader positioning, but recent primary-source comments from sitting justices represent the dominant recent development shaping implied odds.