Trump's active engagement in governance, foreign policy decisions including Iran-related developments, and public appearances through mid-September 2026 underpin trader consensus that resignation by year-end is unlikely. No verified statements, health disclosures, or institutional pressures indicate intent to step down during the first half of the term, with recent staff changes reflecting routine turnover rather than presidential exit signals. Speculation from partisan analysts about post-midterm pressure or personal factors remains unsubstantiated by primary evidence. Historical patterns show voluntary presidential resignations as rare absent extraordinary circumstances. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden documented health crisis or a decisive Republican midterm setback triggering sustained impeachment proceedings before December 31.