Trump's second term, which began in January 2025, shows no public signals of resignation intent through mid-2026, with the president maintaining firm control over the administration and Republican congressional majorities. Historical precedent reinforces trader consensus, as voluntary presidential exits remain exceptionally rare outside of the single Nixon case, and current polling, legislative activity, and public statements indicate stable incumbency. Near-certain pricing at 95.9% for “No” reflects this continuity and absence of credible triggers such as health crises or party pressure. Late developments that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency, major scandal prompting bipartisan removal proceedings, or an unforeseen personal decision tied to family or legacy considerations before the 2027 threshold.