Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 67%
25 bps increase 32%
25 bps decrease 2.7%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,457,893 Vol.
$1,457,893 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
67%
25 bps increase
32%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 67%
25 bps increase 32%
25 bps decrease 2.7%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,457,893 Vol.
$1,457,893 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$241,483 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$551,533 Vol.
3%
No change
$230,191 Vol.
67%
25 bps increase
$272,930 Vol.
32%
50+ bps increase
$161,755 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,457,893Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 28, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,457,893Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 28, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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