Recent August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation with core at 2.4%, has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and a resilient labor market have shifted consensus toward holding the federal funds rate in its current range near 3.5-3.75%, reflected in the 59.5% implied probability of no change. Modest odds of a 25 basis point hike capture ongoing inflation risks, while cuts remain discounted given the absence of clear disinflation progress. The September FOMC decision and subsequent economic releases will likely influence positioning ahead of the longer-dated January outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNo change 60%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$70,720 Vol.
$70,720 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
60%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 60%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$70,720 Vol.
$70,720 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Vol.
4%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Vol.
14%
No change
$21,181 Vol.
60%
25 bps increase
$16,709 Vol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,974 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation with core at 2.4%, has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and a resilient labor market have shifted consensus toward holding the federal funds rate in its current range near 3.5-3.75%, reflected in the 59.5% implied probability of no change. Modest odds of a 25 basis point hike capture ongoing inflation risks, while cuts remain discounted given the absence of clear disinflation progress. The September FOMC decision and subsequent economic releases will likely influence positioning ahead of the longer-dated January outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$70,720Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 27, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation with core at 2.4%, has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and a resilient labor market have shifted consensus toward holding the federal funds rate in its current range near 3.5-3.75%, reflected in the 59.5% implied probability of no change. Modest odds of a 25 basis point hike capture ongoing inflation risks, while cuts remain discounted given the absence of clear disinflation progress. The September FOMC decision and subsequent economic releases will likely influence positioning ahead of the longer-dated January outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$70,720Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 27, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation with core at 2.4%, has reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions and a resilient labor market have shifted consensus toward holding the federal funds rate in its current range near 3.5-3.75%, reflected in the 59.5% implied probability of no change. Modest odds of a 25 basis point hike capture ongoing inflation risks, while cuts remain discounted given the absence of clear disinflation progress. The September FOMC decision and subsequent economic releases will likely influence positioning ahead of the longer-dated January outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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