The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation cost overruns—now estimated near $2.5 billion—remains the dominant factor anchoring low implied probabilities of federal charges. A federal judge had already quashed related subpoenas in March, citing no evidence of criminal conduct beyond political friction with the administration over monetary policy, prompting referral to the Fed Inspector General. Trader consensus on Polymarket, backed by real capital, prices the odds of indictment by December 31, 2026 near 2-3 percent, reflecting the probe’s collapse and absence of fresh investigative activity. Powell’s completed term as Chair and ongoing Board tenure introduce no new legal catalysts, though any future congressional or inspector general findings could theoretically reopen scrutiny.