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Ekonomiya·Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

icon for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Ekonomiya·Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Sep 16

Oct 28

Dec 9

Sep 16

Oct 28

Dec 9

Hike–Pause–Hike 24%

Hike–Pause–Pause 18%

Pause–Pause–Hike 15%

Hike–Hike–Pause 13%

Polymarket
BAGO

Hike–Pause–Hike 24%

Hike–Pause–Pause 18%

Pause–Pause–Hike 15%

Hike–Hike–Pause 13%

Polymarket
BAGO

Hike–Pause–Hike

$40 Vol.

24%

Hike–Pause–Pause

$41 Vol.

18%

Hike–Hike–Hike

$40 Vol.

7%

Hike–Hike–Pause

$25 Vol.

13%

Pause–Pause–Hike

$25 Vol.

15%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$25 Vol.

13%

Pause–Hike–Hike

$25 Vol.

7%

Pause–Hike–Pause

$42 Vol.

9%

Other

$25 Vol.

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$288
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$288
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Kaugnay

icon for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

68%
icon for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

55%
icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

54%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 9 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Hike–Pause–Hike" sa 24%, sinusundan ng "Hike–Pause–Pause" sa 18%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 24¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 24% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Sep 2, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)," i-browse ang 9 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" ay "Hike–Pause–Hike" sa 24%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 24% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Hike–Pause–Pause" sa 18%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.