Elevated inflation, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, has anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision and shifted trader focus toward potential rate hikes rather than further easing. Resilient labor conditions, including 4.3% unemployment, reinforce the case for holding steady while upside inflation risks persist. Market-implied odds assign low probability to near-term changes, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting—set to include updated projections—serving as the immediate catalyst. May CPI data due June 10 could further influence sentiment on whether policy remains on hold through year-end or tilts toward a 25 basis point hike later in 2026.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed rate hike by...?
Fed rate hike by...?
$155,012 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
11%
October Meeting
27%
$155,012 Vol.
June Meeting
$16,328 Vol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,768 Vol.
6%
September Meeting
$3,063 Vol.
11%
October Meeting
$2,545 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, has anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision and shifted trader focus toward potential rate hikes rather than further easing. Resilient labor conditions, including 4.3% unemployment, reinforce the case for holding steady while upside inflation risks persist. Market-implied odds assign low probability to near-term changes, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting—set to include updated projections—serving as the immediate catalyst. May CPI data due June 10 could further influence sentiment on whether policy remains on hold through year-end or tilts toward a 25 basis point hike later in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$155,012Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, has anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision and shifted trader focus toward potential rate hikes rather than further easing. Resilient labor conditions, including 4.3% unemployment, reinforce the case for holding steady while upside inflation risks persist. Market-implied odds assign low probability to near-term changes, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting—set to include updated projections—serving as the immediate catalyst. May CPI data due June 10 could further influence sentiment on whether policy remains on hold through year-end or tilts toward a 25 basis point hike later in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$155,012Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, has anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision and shifted trader focus toward potential rate hikes rather than further easing. Resilient labor conditions, including 4.3% unemployment, reinforce the case for holding steady while upside inflation risks persist. Market-implied odds assign low probability to near-term changes, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting—set to include updated projections—serving as the immediate catalyst. May CPI data due June 10 could further influence sentiment on whether policy remains on hold through year-end or tilts toward a 25 basis point hike later in 2026.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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