Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, have anchored trader expectations for steady federal funds policy through the April–July FOMC cycle, producing a 92.5 percent market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause. Persistent energy price pressures, tariff effects, and core inflation near 2.8–3.3 percent have reinforced the Committee’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, with minutes highlighting upside risks and a stable labor market at 4.3 percent unemployment. The June 16–17 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and the dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst. A material softening in upcoming employment data or a sharp May CPI decline could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updatePause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.2%
$54,187 Vol.
$54,187 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.2%
$54,187 Vol.
$54,187 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,808 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,967 Vol.
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, have anchored trader expectations for steady federal funds policy through the April–July FOMC cycle, producing a 92.5 percent market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause. Persistent energy price pressures, tariff effects, and core inflation near 2.8–3.3 percent have reinforced the Committee’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, with minutes highlighting upside risks and a stable labor market at 4.3 percent unemployment. The June 16–17 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and the dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst. A material softening in upcoming employment data or a sharp May CPI decline could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$54,187Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, have anchored trader expectations for steady federal funds policy through the April–July FOMC cycle, producing a 92.5 percent market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause. Persistent energy price pressures, tariff effects, and core inflation near 2.8–3.3 percent have reinforced the Committee’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, with minutes highlighting upside risks and a stable labor market at 4.3 percent unemployment. The June 16–17 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and the dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst. A material softening in upcoming employment data or a sharp May CPI decline could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$54,187Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, have anchored trader expectations for steady federal funds policy through the April–July FOMC cycle, producing a 92.5 percent market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause. Persistent energy price pressures, tariff effects, and core inflation near 2.8–3.3 percent have reinforced the Committee’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, with minutes highlighting upside risks and a stable labor market at 4.3 percent unemployment. The June 16–17 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and the dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst. A material softening in upcoming employment data or a sharp May CPI decline could still reopen the door to earlier easing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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