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icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Ekonomiya·Mga Rate Ng Fed

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Ekonomiya·Mga Rate Ng Fed

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
3% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on the negligible probability of Jerome Powell facing incarceration before 2027 stems primarily from the swift closure of the January 2026 DOJ criminal probe into Fed headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony. That inquiry, widely viewed as politically motivated amid tensions over monetary policy and interest rate decisions, was transferred to the Fed inspector general by April 2026 with no charges filed. Institutional protections for independent central bankers, absence of prosecutable evidence, and historical precedent further anchor the 97.3% market-implied odds for "No." Tail risks remain remote but include hypothetical new allegations or unprecedented legal maneuvers post-term that could test norms around executive accountability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,065
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on the negligible probability of Jerome Powell facing incarceration before 2027 stems primarily from the swift closure of the January 2026 DOJ criminal probe into Fed headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony. That inquiry, widely viewed as politically motivated amid tensions over monetary policy and interest rate decisions, was transferred to the Fed inspector general by April 2026 with no charges filed. Institutional protections for independent central bankers, absence of prosecutable evidence, and historical precedent further anchor the 97.3% market-implied odds for "No." Tail risks remain remote but include hypothetical new allegations or unprecedented legal maneuvers post-term that could test norms around executive accountability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,065
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 3% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 3¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 3% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jan 12, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" ay 3% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 3% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.