Trader consensus on the 98.4% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 stems primarily from the Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into his Senate testimony regarding the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation. That investigation, launched in January amid tensions with the Trump administration over monetary policy, was halted after court challenges and viewed widely as politically motivated rather than evidence-based. Powell's ongoing role as a Fed governor through 2028, absent any new indictments or regulatory actions, further reinforces the skin-in-the-game assessment priced into the market. While tail risks such as unexpected congressional referrals or novel legal claims cannot be entirely ruled out before 2027, the absence of active proceedings and institutional protections make such scenarios highly improbable.