Trader consensus on the 98.2% market-implied odds for "No" reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovation overruns, which a federal judge had already blocked for lack of evidence beyond policy disagreements. With the probe dropped without charges and Powell having completed his term as chair in May 2026, no active legal or regulatory pathway supports incarceration before 2027. This outcome aligns with historical base rates for senior monetary policy officials facing criminal exposure absent concrete prosecutorial findings. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to unforeseen congressional referrals or new inspector general referrals tied to unrelated matters, though neither has materialized amid stable Fed governance and monetary policy continuity.