The closure of the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, with no charges filed over headquarters renovations or congressional testimony, underpins the 97.2% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Institutional protections for central bank leadership, combined with the absence of subsequent regulatory actions or credible evidence of criminal conduct, have reinforced trader consensus backed by real capital. Historical precedent shows no prior Fed chair facing incarceration, and current monetary policy independence further limits exposure. Tail risks remain minimal but include unforeseen political developments or renewed scrutiny tied to interest rate decisions, though such paths lack substantive legal footing at present.