Skip to main content
icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Pananalapi·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Pananalapi·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$289,693 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$289,693 Vol.

Polymarket

4.8%

$60,422 Vol.

68%

5.0%

$82,803 Vol.

22%

5.2%

$26,427 Vol.

9%

5.5%

$5,918 Vol.

6%

5.7%

$4,298 Vol.

5%

6.0%

$3,539 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% reflect elevated market-implied expectations for the federal funds rate path amid sticky inflation, with July core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year and the Fed holding its target range at 3.50–3.75%. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including signals that financial conditions are not yet sufficiently restrictive, have lifted rate-hike probabilities for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and pushed real yields and term premium higher. Strong AI-related capital spending and productivity growth are supporting higher long-run rate expectations, while persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply add upward pressure on long-end yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming nonfarm payrolls, CPI releases, and the September dot plot, which could shift trader consensus on the neutral rate and peak yield levels before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$289,693
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% reflect elevated market-implied expectations for the federal funds rate path amid sticky inflation, with July core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year and the Fed holding its target range at 3.50–3.75%. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including signals that financial conditions are not yet sufficiently restrictive, have lifted rate-hike probabilities for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and pushed real yields and term premium higher. Strong AI-related capital spending and productivity growth are supporting higher long-run rate expectations, while persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply add upward pressure on long-end yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming nonfarm payrolls, CPI releases, and the September dot plot, which could shift trader consensus on the neutral rate and peak yield levels before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$289,693
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Kaugnay

icon for Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

5%
icon for Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?

Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?

58%
icon for US defaults on debt by 2027?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

3%

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 10 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "4.3%" sa 100%, sinusundan ng "4.4%" sa 100%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 100¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $289.7K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 12, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?," i-browse ang 10 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" ay "4.3%" sa 100%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "4.4%" sa 100%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.