Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027, anchored by the Treasury's $41.1 trillion debt ceiling—set in July 2025—providing substantial headroom as public debt hovers near $39 trillion in April 2026, with CBO projections delaying the X-date until mid-2027 at earliest. Recent partial government shutdowns over Homeland Security appropriations in February and March 2026 were resolved via targeted funding bills and continuing resolutions, reinforcing Congress's historical pattern of navigating fiscal deadlines without breaching the debt limit, which has been raised or suspended over 100 times since 1917 to safeguard U.S. credit markets. Bipartisan aversion to economic catastrophe from default sustains this positioning, though post-2026 midterm gridlock, recession-driven deficit spikes, or extraordinary spending could spark prolonged negotiations testing the limit.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$14,748 Vol.
$14,748 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,748 Vol.
$14,748 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027, anchored by the Treasury's $41.1 trillion debt ceiling—set in July 2025—providing substantial headroom as public debt hovers near $39 trillion in April 2026, with CBO projections delaying the X-date until mid-2027 at earliest. Recent partial government shutdowns over Homeland Security appropriations in February and March 2026 were resolved via targeted funding bills and continuing resolutions, reinforcing Congress's historical pattern of navigating fiscal deadlines without breaching the debt limit, which has been raised or suspended over 100 times since 1917 to safeguard U.S. credit markets. Bipartisan aversion to economic catastrophe from default sustains this positioning, though post-2026 midterm gridlock, recession-driven deficit spikes, or extraordinary spending could spark prolonged negotiations testing the limit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$14,748Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027, anchored by the Treasury's $41.1 trillion debt ceiling—set in July 2025—providing substantial headroom as public debt hovers near $39 trillion in April 2026, with CBO projections delaying the X-date until mid-2027 at earliest. Recent partial government shutdowns over Homeland Security appropriations in February and March 2026 were resolved via targeted funding bills and continuing resolutions, reinforcing Congress's historical pattern of navigating fiscal deadlines without breaching the debt limit, which has been raised or suspended over 100 times since 1917 to safeguard U.S. credit markets. Bipartisan aversion to economic catastrophe from default sustains this positioning, though post-2026 midterm gridlock, recession-driven deficit spikes, or extraordinary spending could spark prolonged negotiations testing the limit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$14,748Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027, anchored by the Treasury's $41.1 trillion debt ceiling—set in July 2025—providing substantial headroom as public debt hovers near $39 trillion in April 2026, with CBO projections delaying the X-date until mid-2027 at earliest. Recent partial government shutdowns over Homeland Security appropriations in February and March 2026 were resolved via targeted funding bills and continuing resolutions, reinforcing Congress's historical pattern of navigating fiscal deadlines without breaching the debt limit, which has been raised or suspended over 100 times since 1917 to safeguard U.S. credit markets. Bipartisan aversion to economic catastrophe from default sustains this positioning, though post-2026 midterm gridlock, recession-driven deficit spikes, or extraordinary spending could spark prolonged negotiations testing the limit.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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