Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.4% federal funds rate by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with no upward revisions despite hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge amid geopolitical oil shocks. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized a firm economic footing and transitory pressures, tempering hike fears that briefly pushed CME FedWatch probabilities above 50% in late March. Upcoming catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and April CPI data, which could shift rate path expectations if inflation reaccelerates persistently.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
$907,158 Vol.
$907,158 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Oo
$907,158 Vol.
$907,158 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.4% federal funds rate by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with no upward revisions despite hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge amid geopolitical oil shocks. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized a firm economic footing and transitory pressures, tempering hike fears that briefly pushed CME FedWatch probabilities above 50% in late March. Upcoming catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and April CPI data, which could shift rate path expectations if inflation reaccelerates persistently.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$907,158Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.4% federal funds rate by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with no upward revisions despite hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge amid geopolitical oil shocks. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized a firm economic footing and transitory pressures, tempering hike fears that briefly pushed CME FedWatch probabilities above 50% in late March. Upcoming catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and April CPI data, which could shift rate path expectations if inflation reaccelerates persistently.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$907,158Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 9, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.4% federal funds rate by year-end—implying one 25 basis point cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, with no upward revisions despite hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge amid geopolitical oil shocks. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized a firm economic footing and transitory pressures, tempering hike fears that briefly pushed CME FedWatch probabilities above 50% in late March. Upcoming catalysts include the April 28-29 FOMC and April CPI data, which could shift rate path expectations if inflation reaccelerates persistently.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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