Polymarket traders price a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by reaccelerating inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—fueled by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs after February's contraction. Echoing the Fed's March decision to hold at 3.50%-3.75% with just one 2026 cut projected, Chair Powell highlighted policy patience amid uncertainty. This capital-backed consensus faces rare challenges from softer-than-expected pre-meeting data like retail sales or ISM surveys, though upside inflation risks reinforce the pause.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed desisyon sa Abril?
Fed desisyon sa Abril?
Walang pagbabago 99.3%
25 bps na pagbabawas <1%
25+ bps na pagtaas <1%
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps <1%
$107,704,335 Vol.
$107,704,335 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps
<1%
25 bps na pagbabawas
<1%
Walang pagbabago
99%
25+ bps na pagtaas
<1%
Walang pagbabago 99.3%
25 bps na pagbabawas <1%
25+ bps na pagtaas <1%
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps <1%
$107,704,335 Vol.
$107,704,335 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng 50+ bps
$41,037,362 Vol.
<1%
25 bps na pagbabawas
$20,792,412 Vol.
<1%
Walang pagbabago
$21,095,886 Vol.
99%
25+ bps na pagtaas
$24,779,006 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by reaccelerating inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—fueled by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs after February's contraction. Echoing the Fed's March decision to hold at 3.50%-3.75% with just one 2026 cut projected, Chair Powell highlighted policy patience amid uncertainty. This capital-backed consensus faces rare challenges from softer-than-expected pre-meeting data like retail sales or ISM surveys, though upside inflation risks reinforce the pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$107,704,335Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by reaccelerating inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—fueled by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs after February's contraction. Echoing the Fed's March decision to hold at 3.50%-3.75% with just one 2026 cut projected, Chair Powell highlighted policy patience amid uncertainty. This capital-backed consensus faces rare challenges from softer-than-expected pre-meeting data like retail sales or ISM surveys, though upside inflation risks reinforce the pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$107,704,335Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 99.3% implied probability of no change to the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by reaccelerating inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—fueled by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs after February's contraction. Echoing the Fed's March decision to hold at 3.50%-3.75% with just one 2026 cut projected, Chair Powell highlighted policy patience amid uncertainty. This capital-backed consensus faces rare challenges from softer-than-expected pre-meeting data like retail sales or ISM surveys, though upside inflation risks reinforce the pause.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong