In the market for the third-best AI agent lab by end of November, closely matched implied probabilities around 50% for numerous contenders signal high uncertainty in a rapidly evolving field of autonomous systems built on large language models. Moonshot AI holds the strongest position among named options at 37.5% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI at 17.5%, reflecting trader focus on demonstrated agentic benchmarks in tool use, multi-step planning, and real-world task completion. Competitive dynamics hinge on differences in model scale, integration with external tools and APIs, safety alignment practices, and ecosystem momentum, with recent capability demos and developer feedback likely to influence shifts before resolution as labs compete to establish clear leadership in practical AI agents.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateThird-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
Moonshot 38%
OpenAI 18%
SpaceXAI 14%
Meta 9.3%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
38%
OpenAI
18%
SpaceXAI
14%
Meta
9%
Z.ai
6%
6%
Alibaba
4%
ByteDance
4%
Xiaomi
4%
MiniMax
4%
Nvidia
4%
Baidu
4%
Amazon
4%
Mistral
4%
Meituan
4%
Anthropic
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Microsoft
1%
Tencent
1%
Moonshot 38%
OpenAI 18%
SpaceXAI 14%
Meta 9.3%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
$426 Vol.
38%
OpenAI
$217 Vol.
18%
SpaceXAI
$187 Vol.
14%
Meta
$87 Vol.
9%
Z.ai
$87 Vol.
6%
$87 Vol.
6%
Alibaba
$87 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$69 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$104 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$89 Vol.
4%
Nvidia
$87 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$87 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$87 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$129 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$69 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$452 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$87 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$178 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$87 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".In the market for the third-best AI agent lab by end of November, closely matched implied probabilities around 50% for numerous contenders signal high uncertainty in a rapidly evolving field of autonomous systems built on large language models. Moonshot AI holds the strongest position among named options at 37.5% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI at 17.5%, reflecting trader focus on demonstrated agentic benchmarks in tool use, multi-step planning, and real-world task completion. Competitive dynamics hinge on differences in model scale, integration with external tools and APIs, safety alignment practices, and ecosystem momentum, with recent capability demos and developer feedback likely to influence shifts before resolution as labs compete to establish clear leadership in practical AI agents.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$2,698Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".In the market for the third-best AI agent lab by end of November, closely matched implied probabilities around 50% for numerous contenders signal high uncertainty in a rapidly evolving field of autonomous systems built on large language models. Moonshot AI holds the strongest position among named options at 37.5% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI at 17.5%, reflecting trader focus on demonstrated agentic benchmarks in tool use, multi-step planning, and real-world task completion. Competitive dynamics hinge on differences in model scale, integration with external tools and APIs, safety alignment practices, and ecosystem momentum, with recent capability demos and developer feedback likely to influence shifts before resolution as labs compete to establish clear leadership in practical AI agents.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,698Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the market for the third-best AI agent lab by end of November, closely matched implied probabilities around 50% for numerous contenders signal high uncertainty in a rapidly evolving field of autonomous systems built on large language models. Moonshot AI holds the strongest position among named options at 37.5% implied probability, ahead of OpenAI at 17.5%, reflecting trader focus on demonstrated agentic benchmarks in tool use, multi-step planning, and real-world task completion. Competitive dynamics hinge on differences in model scale, integration with external tools and APIs, safety alignment practices, and ecosystem momentum, with recent capability demos and developer feedback likely to influence shifts before resolution as labs compete to establish clear leadership in practical AI agents.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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