President Trump's October 2025 directive to pursue nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities at their sites, has kept the prospect of a U.S. resumption in focus after the 1992 moratorium. Officials have since clarified that any near-term activities would likely involve subcritical or hydrodynamic experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with stockpile stewardship programs. New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing strategic reviews have heightened scrutiny of testing thresholds, yet no presidential decision has authorized an explosive test, and timelines for readiness historically span 24–36 months. Trader consensus reflects these procedural, diplomatic, and technical barriers, assigning low implied probabilities to a qualifying U.S. nuclear test through late 2026 absent a clear policy shift or verified escalation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
Nuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
$795,700 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Setyembre 30, 2026
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
5%
$795,700 Vol.
Setyembre 30, 2026
$57,969 Vol.
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to pursue nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities at their sites, has kept the prospect of a U.S. resumption in focus after the 1992 moratorium. Officials have since clarified that any near-term activities would likely involve subcritical or hydrodynamic experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with stockpile stewardship programs. New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing strategic reviews have heightened scrutiny of testing thresholds, yet no presidential decision has authorized an explosive test, and timelines for readiness historically span 24–36 months. Trader consensus reflects these procedural, diplomatic, and technical barriers, assigning low implied probabilities to a qualifying U.S. nuclear test through late 2026 absent a clear policy shift or verified escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,700Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to pursue nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities at their sites, has kept the prospect of a U.S. resumption in focus after the 1992 moratorium. Officials have since clarified that any near-term activities would likely involve subcritical or hydrodynamic experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with stockpile stewardship programs. New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing strategic reviews have heightened scrutiny of testing thresholds, yet no presidential decision has authorized an explosive test, and timelines for readiness historically span 24–36 months. Trader consensus reflects these procedural, diplomatic, and technical barriers, assigning low implied probabilities to a qualifying U.S. nuclear test through late 2026 absent a clear policy shift or verified escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,700Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to pursue nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities at their sites, has kept the prospect of a U.S. resumption in focus after the 1992 moratorium. Officials have since clarified that any near-term activities would likely involve subcritical or hydrodynamic experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with stockpile stewardship programs. New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing strategic reviews have heightened scrutiny of testing thresholds, yet no presidential decision has authorized an explosive test, and timelines for readiness historically span 24–36 months. Trader consensus reflects these procedural, diplomatic, and technical barriers, assigning low implied probabilities to a qualifying U.S. nuclear test through late 2026 absent a clear policy shift or verified escalation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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