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Teknolohiya·Claude

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

Market icon
Teknolohiya·Claude

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

Apr 30

May 31

Apr 30

May 31

12+ 68%

9-11 27%

3-5 24%

6-8 11%

Polymarket
BAGO

12+ 68%

9-11 27%

3-5 24%

6-8 11%

Polymarket
BAGO

0-2

$219 Vol.

11%

3-5

$633 Vol.

16%

6-8

$37 Vol.

11%

9-11

$50 Vol.

22%

12+

$341 Vol.

68%

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (68% implied probability), reflecting Anthropic's ongoing infrastructure strains amid explosive user growth and recent large language model releases like Opus 4.7 and Claude Design. April 2026 saw disruptions on at least seven distinct days—including major outages on April 7, 13, and 15, plus elevated errors affecting Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code—pushing monthly uptime to around 97-99% but with incidents every 48 hours during peak loads. This pattern stems from inference optimization trade-offs, such as quantization and batching, degrading reliability under surging demand, positioning 9-11 days (24.5%) as the next likely outcome while lower buckets lag due to persistent scaling bottlenecks absent major fixes.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$1,281
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (68% implied probability), reflecting Anthropic's ongoing infrastructure strains amid explosive user growth and recent large language model releases like Opus 4.7 and Claude Design. April 2026 saw disruptions on at least seven distinct days—including major outages on April 7, 13, and 15, plus elevated errors affecting Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code—pushing monthly uptime to around 97-99% but with incidents every 48 hours during peak loads. This pattern stems from inference optimization trade-offs, such as quantization and batching, degrading reliability under surging demand, positioning 9-11 days (24.5%) as the next likely outcome while lower buckets lag due to persistent scaling bottlenecks absent major fixes.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$1,281
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Will Claude go down on __ days in May?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "12+" sa 68%, sinusundan ng "9-11" sa 22%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 68¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 68% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Will Claude go down on __ days in May?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Mar 30, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Will Claude go down on __ days in May?," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Will Claude go down on __ days in May?" ay "12+" sa 68%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 68% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "9-11" sa 22%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will Claude go down on __ days in May?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.