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icon for Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?
Heopolitika·US - Iranian

Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?

icon for Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?
Heopolitika·US - Iranian

Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$7,815,717 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,815,717 Vol.

Polymarket

Disyembre 31

$843,083 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US military strikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in southern Iran since early September 2026, launched in response to alleged attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US forces, continue without congressional authorization for broader hostilities. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding paused earlier phases of the conflict and addressed maritime access and sanctions relief, yet nuclear enrichment inspections, ballistic missiles, and reconstruction funding remain unresolved amid expired negotiation timelines. Trader consensus on a formal declaration of war reflects these patterns of limited executive-directed actions, historical precedent for congressional avoidance of explicit war votes, and statements tying de-escalation to post-midterm outcomes. Diplomatic channels through Qatar and Oman, plus Iranian conditions for reopening the strait, represent key variables that could shift engagement levels before any statutory declaration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,815,717
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US military strikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in southern Iran since early September 2026, launched in response to alleged attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US forces, continue without congressional authorization for broader hostilities. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding paused earlier phases of the conflict and addressed maritime access and sanctions relief, yet nuclear enrichment inspections, ballistic missiles, and reconstruction funding remain unresolved amid expired negotiation timelines. Trader consensus on a formal declaration of war reflects these patterns of limited executive-directed actions, historical precedent for congressional avoidance of explicit war votes, and statements tying de-escalation to post-midterm outcomes. Diplomatic channels through Qatar and Oman, plus Iranian conditions for reopening the strait, represent key variables that could shift engagement levels before any statutory declaration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,815,717
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Kaugnay

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17%
Oo
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11%
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Iran Nuke bago ang 2027?

6%
Oo

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 3 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Disyembre 31" sa 2%, sinusundan ng "Marso 31" sa 0%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 2¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 2% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay naka-generate ng $7.8 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jan 12, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?," i-browse ang 3 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Isa itong wide-open market. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna para sa "Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay "Disyembre 31" sa 2% lang, na may "Marso 31" na malapit sa likod sa 0%. Walang outcome na may malakas na mayorya, kaya nakikita ito ng mga trader bilang highly uncertain, na maaaring magbigay ng mga kakaibang trading opportunity. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time, kaya i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para panoorin kung paano nag-e-evolve ang probabilities.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Opisyal na magdedeklara ba ang US ng digmaan sa Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.