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icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

BAGO
Oct 7, 2026
Polymarket

$1,015 Vol.

Polymarket

280M

$384 Vol.

95%

270M

$0 Vol.

51%

260M

$0 Vol.

42%

250M

$51 Vol.

33%

200M

$581 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.US commercial crude inventories stand at 428.9 million barrels as of the week ending August 21, 2026, after sharp spring and early-summer draws driven by surging exports, reduced net imports below 1 million barrels per day, and elevated refinery runs near 17 million barrels daily. The EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook projects stocks will remain below the five-year average through year-end due to these structural factors and sustained high crack spreads supporting refinery demand. Geopolitical supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure continue to shape global balances, while weekly EIA data releases—next due September 2—and any shifts in export flows or seasonal refinery activity represent the primary near-term catalysts for movements into late September.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Volume
$1,015
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 7, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 26, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.US commercial crude inventories stand at 428.9 million barrels as of the week ending August 21, 2026, after sharp spring and early-summer draws driven by surging exports, reduced net imports below 1 million barrels per day, and elevated refinery runs near 17 million barrels daily. The EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook projects stocks will remain below the five-year average through year-end due to these structural factors and sustained high crack spreads supporting refinery demand. Geopolitical supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure continue to shape global balances, while weekly EIA data releases—next due September 2—and any shifts in export flows or seasonal refinery activity represent the primary near-term catalysts for movements into late September.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Volume
$1,015
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 7, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 26, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "280M" sa 95%, sinusundan ng "270M" sa 51%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 95¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 95% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 26, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" ay "280M" sa 95%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 95% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "270M" sa 51%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.