Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 34.5% implied probability for the official USD/ARS rate staying below 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting uncertainty in Argentina's crawling peg trajectory amid President Milei's disinflation push. The current official rate hovers near 1,358 ARS per USD, supported by fiscal surplus achievement and a sharp poverty drop to 28.2% in late 2025 data released early April, bolstering reserves buildup. However, March 2026 inflation accelerated to 3.4% monthly—the highest in a year—and 32.6% annually, pressuring the Central Bank's inflation-linked exchange band expansion and differentiating lower brackets (faster stabilization) from higher ones (persistent price pressures or policy slippage). Key swing factors include April inflation releases and BCRA reserve accumulation ahead of potential IMF engagement.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$15,906 Hac.
$15,906 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
<1600,00
35%
1600,00–1699,99
24%
1700,00–1799,99
18%
1800,00–1899,99
16%
1900,00–1999,99
15%
2000,00+
18%
$15,906 Hac.
$15,906 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
<1600,00
$1,314 Hac.
35%
1600,00–1699,99
$1,005 Hac.
24%
1700,00–1799,99
$929 Hac.
18%
1800,00–1899,99
$713 Hac.
16%
1900,00–1999,99
$10,966 Hac.
15%
2000,00+
$979 Hac.
18%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 34.5% implied probability for the official USD/ARS rate staying below 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting uncertainty in Argentina's crawling peg trajectory amid President Milei's disinflation push. The current official rate hovers near 1,358 ARS per USD, supported by fiscal surplus achievement and a sharp poverty drop to 28.2% in late 2025 data released early April, bolstering reserves buildup. However, March 2026 inflation accelerated to 3.4% monthly—the highest in a year—and 32.6% annually, pressuring the Central Bank's inflation-linked exchange band expansion and differentiating lower brackets (faster stabilization) from higher ones (persistent price pressures or policy slippage). Key swing factors include April inflation releases and BCRA reserve accumulation ahead of potential IMF engagement.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Hacim
$15,906Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 34.5% implied probability for the official USD/ARS rate staying below 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting uncertainty in Argentina's crawling peg trajectory amid President Milei's disinflation push. The current official rate hovers near 1,358 ARS per USD, supported by fiscal surplus achievement and a sharp poverty drop to 28.2% in late 2025 data released early April, bolstering reserves buildup. However, March 2026 inflation accelerated to 3.4% monthly—the highest in a year—and 32.6% annually, pressuring the Central Bank's inflation-linked exchange band expansion and differentiating lower brackets (faster stabilization) from higher ones (persistent price pressures or policy slippage). Key swing factors include April inflation releases and BCRA reserve accumulation ahead of potential IMF engagement.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Hacim
$15,906Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 34.5% implied probability for the official USD/ARS rate staying below 1600 by year-end 2026, reflecting uncertainty in Argentina's crawling peg trajectory amid President Milei's disinflation push. The current official rate hovers near 1,358 ARS per USD, supported by fiscal surplus achievement and a sharp poverty drop to 28.2% in late 2025 data released early April, bolstering reserves buildup. However, March 2026 inflation accelerated to 3.4% monthly—the highest in a year—and 32.6% annually, pressuring the Central Bank's inflation-linked exchange band expansion and differentiating lower brackets (faster stabilization) from higher ones (persistent price pressures or policy slippage). Key swing factors include April inflation releases and BCRA reserve accumulation ahead of potential IMF engagement.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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