US intelligence agencies' March 2026 annual threat assessment, echoed by ODNI reports, concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion before 2027, prioritizing unification without force amid ongoing military buildup challenges, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% for no clash. Routine PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and naval drills persist as gray-zone coercion—latest detections on April 17 involved five sorties and vessels—but show no escalation to kinetic conflict. Beijing denounced US pressure claims on April 15, while Taiwan opposition leader's April 6 China visit signaled diplomatic channels. Absent major catalysts like sudden troop surges or blockades, markets price structural barriers including economic interdependence and US deterrence as overriding risks through 2026.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$1,633,253 Hac.
$1,633,253 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$1,633,253 Hac.
$1,633,253 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence agencies' March 2026 annual threat assessment, echoed by ODNI reports, concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion before 2027, prioritizing unification without force amid ongoing military buildup challenges, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% for no clash. Routine PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and naval drills persist as gray-zone coercion—latest detections on April 17 involved five sorties and vessels—but show no escalation to kinetic conflict. Beijing denounced US pressure claims on April 15, while Taiwan opposition leader's April 6 China visit signaled diplomatic channels. Absent major catalysts like sudden troop surges or blockades, markets price structural barriers including economic interdependence and US deterrence as overriding risks through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Hacim
$1,633,253Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence agencies' March 2026 annual threat assessment, echoed by ODNI reports, concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion before 2027, prioritizing unification without force amid ongoing military buildup challenges, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% for no clash. Routine PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and naval drills persist as gray-zone coercion—latest detections on April 17 involved five sorties and vessels—but show no escalation to kinetic conflict. Beijing denounced US pressure claims on April 15, while Taiwan opposition leader's April 6 China visit signaled diplomatic channels. Absent major catalysts like sudden troop surges or blockades, markets price structural barriers including economic interdependence and US deterrence as overriding risks through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$1,633,253Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence agencies' March 2026 annual threat assessment, echoed by ODNI reports, concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion before 2027, prioritizing unification without force amid ongoing military buildup challenges, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% for no clash. Routine PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ and naval drills persist as gray-zone coercion—latest detections on April 17 involved five sorties and vessels—but show no escalation to kinetic conflict. Beijing denounced US pressure claims on April 15, while Taiwan opposition leader's April 6 China visit signaled diplomatic channels. Absent major catalysts like sudden troop surges or blockades, markets price structural barriers including economic interdependence and US deterrence as overriding risks through 2026.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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