Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin split for the ECB's June 2026 Governing Council meeting, with no change in the 2.00% deposit rate at 50% implied probability and a 25 basis points increase at 45%, reflecting heightened uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 Eurozone CPI accelerated to 2.5% year-over-year—smashing the 2% target—prompting the ECB's March 19 decision to hold rates steady while revising its 2026 inflation forecast sharply higher to 2.6% average from prior estimates. Hawkish signals from banks like Goldman Sachs, citing April and June hike potential amid geopolitical risks such as the Iran war, counterbalance subdued GDP growth around 0.9% and stable 6.2% unemployment. Key differentiators include April 30 meeting outcomes and incoming April CPI data, which could tip sentiment toward tightening if inflation sticks above target.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
No change 50%
25 bps Increase 44%
50+ bps increase 4.4%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
$13,577 Hac.
$13,577 Hac.
11 Haz 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
50%
25 bps Increase
44%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 50%
25 bps Increase 44%
50+ bps increase 4.4%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
$13,577 Hac.
$13,577 Hac.
11 Haz 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,380 Hac.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,122 Hac.
2%
No change
$2,928 Hac.
50%
25 bps Increase
$3,022 Hac.
44%
50+ bps increase
$3,125 Hac.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin split for the ECB's June 2026 Governing Council meeting, with no change in the 2.00% deposit rate at 50% implied probability and a 25 basis points increase at 45%, reflecting heightened uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 Eurozone CPI accelerated to 2.5% year-over-year—smashing the 2% target—prompting the ECB's March 19 decision to hold rates steady while revising its 2026 inflation forecast sharply higher to 2.6% average from prior estimates. Hawkish signals from banks like Goldman Sachs, citing April and June hike potential amid geopolitical risks such as the Iran war, counterbalance subdued GDP growth around 0.9% and stable 6.2% unemployment. Key differentiators include April 30 meeting outcomes and incoming April CPI data, which could tip sentiment toward tightening if inflation sticks above target.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Hacim
$13,577Bitiş Tarihi
11 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin split for the ECB's June 2026 Governing Council meeting, with no change in the 2.00% deposit rate at 50% implied probability and a 25 basis points increase at 45%, reflecting heightened uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 Eurozone CPI accelerated to 2.5% year-over-year—smashing the 2% target—prompting the ECB's March 19 decision to hold rates steady while revising its 2026 inflation forecast sharply higher to 2.6% average from prior estimates. Hawkish signals from banks like Goldman Sachs, citing April and June hike potential amid geopolitical risks such as the Iran war, counterbalance subdued GDP growth around 0.9% and stable 6.2% unemployment. Key differentiators include April 30 meeting outcomes and incoming April CPI data, which could tip sentiment toward tightening if inflation sticks above target.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Hacim
$13,577Bitiş Tarihi
11 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin split for the ECB's June 2026 Governing Council meeting, with no change in the 2.00% deposit rate at 50% implied probability and a 25 basis points increase at 45%, reflecting heightened uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 Eurozone CPI accelerated to 2.5% year-over-year—smashing the 2% target—prompting the ECB's March 19 decision to hold rates steady while revising its 2026 inflation forecast sharply higher to 2.6% average from prior estimates. Hawkish signals from banks like Goldman Sachs, citing April and June hike potential amid geopolitical risks such as the Iran war, counterbalance subdued GDP growth around 0.9% and stable 6.2% unemployment. Key differentiators include April 30 meeting outcomes and incoming April CPI data, which could tip sentiment toward tightening if inflation sticks above target.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular