Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.2% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from the protracted Iran conflict driving up oil costs despite softer February 2026 core CPI at 1.3% year-over-year. Supporting this positioning are accelerating real wage gains—up 1.9% in February, the strongest in five years—and BOJ Governor Ueda's March comments on underlying inflation trending toward the 2% target. No-change odds at 24% capture war-related growth risks that prompted the March hold at 0.75%, with negligible probabilities for larger hikes or cuts amid balanced labor market dynamics. Key watch: April inflation data and Middle East developments ahead of June.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi25 baz puan artış 71.6%
Değişiklik yok 24%
50+ baz puan artış 2.5%
Faiz oranlarını düşür 2.5%
$31,210 Hac.
$31,210 Hac.
16 Haz 2026
Faiz oranlarını düşür
2%
Değişiklik yok
24%
25 baz puan artış
66%
50+ baz puan artış
3%
25 baz puan artış 71.6%
Değişiklik yok 24%
50+ baz puan artış 2.5%
Faiz oranlarını düşür 2.5%
$31,210 Hac.
$31,210 Hac.
16 Haz 2026
Faiz oranlarını düşür
$18,554 Hac.
2%
Değişiklik yok
$8,442 Hac.
24%
25 baz puan artış
$3,334 Hac.
66%
50+ baz puan artış
$881 Hac.
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.2% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from the protracted Iran conflict driving up oil costs despite softer February 2026 core CPI at 1.3% year-over-year. Supporting this positioning are accelerating real wage gains—up 1.9% in February, the strongest in five years—and BOJ Governor Ueda's March comments on underlying inflation trending toward the 2% target. No-change odds at 24% capture war-related growth risks that prompted the March hold at 0.75%, with negligible probabilities for larger hikes or cuts amid balanced labor market dynamics. Key watch: April inflation data and Middle East developments ahead of June.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Hacim
$31,210Bitiş Tarihi
16 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.2% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from the protracted Iran conflict driving up oil costs despite softer February 2026 core CPI at 1.3% year-over-year. Supporting this positioning are accelerating real wage gains—up 1.9% in February, the strongest in five years—and BOJ Governor Ueda's March comments on underlying inflation trending toward the 2% target. No-change odds at 24% capture war-related growth risks that prompted the March hold at 0.75%, with negligible probabilities for larger hikes or cuts amid balanced labor market dynamics. Key watch: April inflation data and Middle East developments ahead of June.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$31,210Bitiş Tarihi
16 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.2% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan policy rate hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures from the protracted Iran conflict driving up oil costs despite softer February 2026 core CPI at 1.3% year-over-year. Supporting this positioning are accelerating real wage gains—up 1.9% in February, the strongest in five years—and BOJ Governor Ueda's March comments on underlying inflation trending toward the 2% target. No-change odds at 24% capture war-related growth risks that prompted the March hold at 0.75%, with negligible probabilities for larger hikes or cuts amid balanced labor market dynamics. Key watch: April inflation data and Middle East developments ahead of June.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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