Polymarket traders have priced a modest Q1 2026 GDP contraction (-0.3% to -0.1%) at 35.5% implied probability, edging out 1.2%+ growth at 27.2%, amid mixed monthly indicators revealing fragile domestic demand. February household spending plunged 1.8% year-over-year and industrial production dropped 2.0% month-over-month, reversing January's 4.3% surge, while March manufacturing PMI cooled to 51.6 from February's 53.0 peak, pressured by Iran conflict risks curbing exports. Despite economist consensus near 1.5% annualized quarter-on-quarter growth per JCER's April survey, trader sentiment highlights consumption weakness and external headwinds as key differentiators in this closely contested market ahead of the May 14 preliminary release.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi-0.3– -0.1% 38%
1.2%+ 27.6%
0.9–1.1% 24.3%
0.0–0.2% 22%
YENİ
YENİ
19 May 2026
≤-0.4%
2%
-0.3– -0.1%
38%
0.0–0.2%
22%
0.3–0.5%
18%
0.6–0.8%
24%
0.9–1.1%
24%
1.2%+
28%
-0.3– -0.1% 38%
1.2%+ 27.6%
0.9–1.1% 24.3%
0.0–0.2% 22%
YENİ
YENİ
19 May 2026
≤-0.4%
$173 Hac.
2%
-0.3– -0.1%
$123 Hac.
38%
0.0–0.2%
$114 Hac.
22%
0.3–0.5%
$84 Hac.
18%
0.6–0.8%
$107 Hac.
24%
0.9–1.1%
$106 Hac.
24%
1.2%+
$593 Hac.
28%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders have priced a modest Q1 2026 GDP contraction (-0.3% to -0.1%) at 35.5% implied probability, edging out 1.2%+ growth at 27.2%, amid mixed monthly indicators revealing fragile domestic demand. February household spending plunged 1.8% year-over-year and industrial production dropped 2.0% month-over-month, reversing January's 4.3% surge, while March manufacturing PMI cooled to 51.6 from February's 53.0 peak, pressured by Iran conflict risks curbing exports. Despite economist consensus near 1.5% annualized quarter-on-quarter growth per JCER's April survey, trader sentiment highlights consumption weakness and external headwinds as key differentiators in this closely contested market ahead of the May 14 preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Hacim
$1,300Bitiş Tarihi
19 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders have priced a modest Q1 2026 GDP contraction (-0.3% to -0.1%) at 35.5% implied probability, edging out 1.2%+ growth at 27.2%, amid mixed monthly indicators revealing fragile domestic demand. February household spending plunged 1.8% year-over-year and industrial production dropped 2.0% month-over-month, reversing January's 4.3% surge, while March manufacturing PMI cooled to 51.6 from February's 53.0 peak, pressured by Iran conflict risks curbing exports. Despite economist consensus near 1.5% annualized quarter-on-quarter growth per JCER's April survey, trader sentiment highlights consumption weakness and external headwinds as key differentiators in this closely contested market ahead of the May 14 preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Hacim
$1,300Bitiş Tarihi
19 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders have priced a modest Q1 2026 GDP contraction (-0.3% to -0.1%) at 35.5% implied probability, edging out 1.2%+ growth at 27.2%, amid mixed monthly indicators revealing fragile domestic demand. February household spending plunged 1.8% year-over-year and industrial production dropped 2.0% month-over-month, reversing January's 4.3% surge, while March manufacturing PMI cooled to 51.6 from February's 53.0 peak, pressured by Iran conflict risks curbing exports. Despite economist consensus near 1.5% annualized quarter-on-quarter growth per JCER's April survey, trader sentiment highlights consumption weakness and external headwinds as key differentiators in this closely contested market ahead of the May 14 preliminary release.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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