Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44% implied probability for Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, closely tracking the ECB's March 2026 staff projections of 0.9% growth, revised down from prior estimates amid persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks. Supporting this positioning, Q4 2025 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while April's S&P Global PMI signaled a nine-month low in growth due to surging input costs, with unemployment edging up to 6.2% in February. The 0-1.0% outcome at 29% reflects downside risks from trade tensions and hawkish ECB policy, as baseline inflation forecasts rose to 2.6%; watch the late-April Q1 2026 GDP flash for potential shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi1.0-2.0% 46%
0-1.0% 42.0%
7.0%+ 23.9%
4.0-5.0% 16.7%
<0%
10%
0-1.0%
29%
1.0-2.0%
48%
2.0-3.0%
15%
3.0-4.0%
21%
4.0-5.0%
17%
5.0-6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
3%
7.0%+
24%
1.0-2.0% 46%
0-1.0% 42.0%
7.0%+ 23.9%
4.0-5.0% 16.7%
<0%
10%
0-1.0%
29%
1.0-2.0%
48%
2.0-3.0%
15%
3.0-4.0%
21%
4.0-5.0%
17%
5.0-6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
3%
7.0%+
24%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44% implied probability for Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, closely tracking the ECB's March 2026 staff projections of 0.9% growth, revised down from prior estimates amid persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks. Supporting this positioning, Q4 2025 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while April's S&P Global PMI signaled a nine-month low in growth due to surging input costs, with unemployment edging up to 6.2% in February. The 0-1.0% outcome at 29% reflects downside risks from trade tensions and hawkish ECB policy, as baseline inflation forecasts rose to 2.6%; watch the late-April Q1 2026 GDP flash for potential shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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