Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.1% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, holding the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% amid a 10.9% energy surge—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. The Fed's March statement underscored solid economic expansion and steady job gains, aligning with its patient stance after holding rates unchanged since prior cuts. This strong positioning could face challenge from softer pre-meeting data like April retail sales or producer prices signaling cooling pressures, though persistent inflation favors the hold.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNisan ayında Fed kararı mı?
Nisan ayında Fed kararı mı?
Değişiklik yok 99.0%
25 baz puan düşüş <1%
25+ baz puan artış <1%
50+ bp düşüş <1%
$97,159,807 Hac.
$97,159,807 Hac.
29 Nis 2026
50+ bp düşüş
<1%
25 baz puan düşüş
<1%
Değişiklik yok
99%
25+ baz puan artış
<1%
Değişiklik yok 99.0%
25 baz puan düşüş <1%
25+ baz puan artış <1%
50+ bp düşüş <1%
$97,159,807 Hac.
$97,159,807 Hac.
29 Nis 2026
50+ bp düşüş
$35,369,349 Hac.
<1%
25 baz puan düşüş
$19,815,211 Hac.
<1%
Değişiklik yok
$19,694,224 Hac.
99%
25+ baz puan artış
$22,282,576 Hac.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.1% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, holding the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% amid a 10.9% energy surge—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. The Fed's March statement underscored solid economic expansion and steady job gains, aligning with its patient stance after holding rates unchanged since prior cuts. This strong positioning could face challenge from softer pre-meeting data like April retail sales or producer prices signaling cooling pressures, though persistent inflation favors the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Hacim
$97,159,807Bitiş Tarihi
29 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.1% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, holding the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% amid a 10.9% energy surge—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. The Fed's March statement underscored solid economic expansion and steady job gains, aligning with its patient stance after holding rates unchanged since prior cuts. This strong positioning could face challenge from softer pre-meeting data like April retail sales or producer prices signaling cooling pressures, though persistent inflation favors the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$97,159,807Bitiş Tarihi
29 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 99.1% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, holding the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% amid a 10.9% energy surge—and resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. The Fed's March statement underscored solid economic expansion and steady job gains, aligning with its patient stance after holding rates unchanged since prior cuts. This strong positioning could face challenge from softer pre-meeting data like April retail sales or producer prices signaling cooling pressures, though persistent inflation favors the hold.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular