Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a gasoline-led 0.9% monthly gain—halting disinflation momentum, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, signaling labor market resilience. These developments have aligned fed funds futures via CME FedWatch, pricing over 94% odds of an April hold, diminishing cut expectations through June despite some hike chatter in minutes. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for further policy signals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiDuraklat–Duraklat–Duraklat 90%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Faiz İndir 8%
Diğer 2.5%
Durakla–İndir–Durakla 1.2%
$905,001 Hac.
$905,001 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
Duraklat–Duraklat–Duraklat
90%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Faiz İndir
8%
Diğer
2%
Durakla–İndir–Durakla
1%
Sürdürecek–İndirecek–İndirecek
<1%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Duraklat 90%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Faiz İndir 8%
Diğer 2.5%
Durakla–İndir–Durakla 1.2%
$905,001 Hac.
$905,001 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
Duraklat–Duraklat–Duraklat
$30,642 Hac.
90%
Duraklat–Duraklat–Faiz İndir
$15,197 Hac.
8%
Diğer
$216,554 Hac.
2%
Durakla–İndir–Durakla
$132,519 Hac.
1%
Sürdürecek–İndirecek–İndirecek
$510,089 Hac.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a gasoline-led 0.9% monthly gain—halting disinflation momentum, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, signaling labor market resilience. These developments have aligned fed funds futures via CME FedWatch, pricing over 94% odds of an April hold, diminishing cut expectations through June despite some hike chatter in minutes. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for further policy signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Hacim
$905,001Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a gasoline-led 0.9% monthly gain—halting disinflation momentum, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, signaling labor market resilience. These developments have aligned fed funds futures via CME FedWatch, pricing over 94% odds of an April hold, diminishing cut expectations through June despite some hike chatter in minutes. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for further policy signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Hacim
$905,001Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a gasoline-led 0.9% monthly gain—halting disinflation momentum, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, signaling labor market resilience. These developments have aligned fed funds futures via CME FedWatch, pricing over 94% odds of an April hold, diminishing cut expectations through June despite some hike chatter in minutes. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for further policy signals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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