Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoids jail before 2027, driven by the stalled January 2026 Department of Justice probe into alleged false testimony on the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation costs—a politically charged inquiry amid President Trump's demands for aggressive rate cuts that Powell has resisted to prioritize inflation control. Three months on, no indictment has emerged despite initial S&P 500 volatility, underscoring institutional safeguards for Fed independence and perceptions of the investigation as retaliatory rather than substantive. Tail risks include a surprise grand jury escalation or post-term (ending May 2026) pursuit under intensified political pressure, though historical precedents favor resolution short of incarceration. Watch upcoming FOMC meetings and successor confirmation dynamics.