Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI showed elevated readings at around 3%, fueled by oil spikes to $115 from Middle East tensions, though a recent Iran ceasefire has eased prices below $95, tempering cut odds to just 10% for a 25 basis point reduction. Unemployment remains stable at 4.3% with low but steady job gains, aligning with the Fed's March hold and dot plot signaling only one 2026 cut. Marginal hike odds (3.5%) reflect Powell's view of anchored long-term inflation expectations. Watch April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiDeğişiklik yok 79%
25 baz puan indirim 10%
25 baz puan artış 3.6%
50+ baz puan düşüş 2.8%
$3,631,262 Hac.
$3,631,262 Hac.
29 Tem 2026
50+ baz puan düşüş
3%
25 baz puan indirim
10%
Değişiklik yok
79%
25 baz puan artış
4%
50+ baz puan artış
1%
Değişiklik yok 79%
25 baz puan indirim 10%
25 baz puan artış 3.6%
50+ baz puan düşüş 2.8%
$3,631,262 Hac.
$3,631,262 Hac.
29 Tem 2026
50+ baz puan düşüş
$160,191 Hac.
3%
25 baz puan indirim
$109,621 Hac.
10%
Değişiklik yok
$162,735 Hac.
79%
25 baz puan artış
$3,011,788 Hac.
4%
50+ baz puan artış
$187,008 Hac.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI showed elevated readings at around 3%, fueled by oil spikes to $115 from Middle East tensions, though a recent Iran ceasefire has eased prices below $95, tempering cut odds to just 10% for a 25 basis point reduction. Unemployment remains stable at 4.3% with low but steady job gains, aligning with the Fed's March hold and dot plot signaling only one 2026 cut. Marginal hike odds (3.5%) reflect Powell's view of anchored long-term inflation expectations. Watch April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Hacim
$3,631,262Bitiş Tarihi
29 Tem 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI showed elevated readings at around 3%, fueled by oil spikes to $115 from Middle East tensions, though a recent Iran ceasefire has eased prices below $95, tempering cut odds to just 10% for a 25 basis point reduction. Unemployment remains stable at 4.3% with low but steady job gains, aligning with the Fed's March hold and dot plot signaling only one 2026 cut. Marginal hike odds (3.5%) reflect Powell's view of anchored long-term inflation expectations. Watch April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$3,631,262Bitiş Tarihi
29 Tem 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI showed elevated readings at around 3%, fueled by oil spikes to $115 from Middle East tensions, though a recent Iran ceasefire has eased prices below $95, tempering cut odds to just 10% for a 25 basis point reduction. Unemployment remains stable at 4.3% with low but steady job gains, aligning with the Fed's March hold and dot plot signaling only one 2026 cut. Marginal hike odds (3.5%) reflect Powell's view of anchored long-term inflation expectations. Watch April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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