Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses across the January 27-28, March 17-18, and upcoming April 28-29 meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in January and March that held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike amid Iran-related oil shocks—coupled with a stronger-than-expected 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Fed minutes highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists, aligning with Powell's comments conditioning cuts on sustained disinflation progress. Realistic challenges include abrupt labor market weakening or energy price relief ahead of the April decision, though recent data reinforces the hold.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiFed kararları (Ocak - Nisan)
Fed kararları (Ocak - Nisan)
Ara–Ara–Ara 98.8%
Duraklat–Duraklat–İndir <1%
Diğer <1%
$630,624 Hac.
$630,624 Hac.
29 Nis 2026
Ara–Ara–Ara
99%
Duraklat–Duraklat–İndir
1%
Diğer
<1%
Ara–Ara–Ara 98.8%
Duraklat–Duraklat–İndir <1%
Diğer <1%
$630,624 Hac.
$630,624 Hac.
29 Nis 2026
Ara–Ara–Ara
$91,110 Hac.
99%
Duraklat–Duraklat–İndir
$223,654 Hac.
1%
Diğer
$275,873 Hac.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses across the January 27-28, March 17-18, and upcoming April 28-29 meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in January and March that held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike amid Iran-related oil shocks—coupled with a stronger-than-expected 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Fed minutes highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists, aligning with Powell's comments conditioning cuts on sustained disinflation progress. Realistic challenges include abrupt labor market weakening or energy price relief ahead of the April decision, though recent data reinforces the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Hacim
$630,624Bitiş Tarihi
29 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses across the January 27-28, March 17-18, and upcoming April 28-29 meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in January and March that held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike amid Iran-related oil shocks—coupled with a stronger-than-expected 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Fed minutes highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists, aligning with Powell's comments conditioning cuts on sustained disinflation progress. Realistic challenges include abrupt labor market weakening or energy price relief ahead of the April decision, though recent data reinforces the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Hacim
$630,624Bitiş Tarihi
29 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses across the January 27-28, March 17-18, and upcoming April 28-29 meetings, reflecting confirmed no-change decisions in January and March that held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. This positioning stems from March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike amid Iran-related oil shocks—coupled with a stronger-than-expected 178,000 nonfarm payroll gain and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Fed minutes highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if inflation persists, aligning with Powell's comments conditioning cuts on sustained disinflation progress. Realistic challenges include abrupt labor market weakening or energy price relief ahead of the April decision, though recent data reinforces the hold.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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