Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus around steady policy amid reaccelerating inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with core measures also firm, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, bolstering the Fed's March decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% target range and its dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment has sidelined rate-cut odds below 7% combined. Realistic challenges include softer April CPI (due May 12) or May nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the meeting, potentially reviving easing expectations if inflation cools toward the 2% goal.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHaziran'da Fed Kararı mı?
Haziran'da Fed Kararı mı?
Değişiklik yok 91%
25 baz puan düşüş 6%
25 baz puan artış 2.6%
50+ baz puanlık düşüş 1.4%
$7,948,979 Hac.
$7,948,979 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
50+ baz puanlık düşüş
1%
25 baz puan düşüş
6%
Değişiklik yok
91%
25 baz puan artış
3%
50+ baz puan artış
1%
Değişiklik yok 91%
25 baz puan düşüş 6%
25 baz puan artış 2.6%
50+ baz puanlık düşüş 1.4%
$7,948,979 Hac.
$7,948,979 Hac.
17 Haz 2026
50+ baz puanlık düşüş
$2,321,853 Hac.
1%
25 baz puan düşüş
$1,204,248 Hac.
6%
Değişiklik yok
$1,486,574 Hac.
91%
25 baz puan artış
$1,622,197 Hac.
3%
50+ baz puan artış
$1,314,510 Hac.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus around steady policy amid reaccelerating inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with core measures also firm, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, bolstering the Fed's March decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% target range and its dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment has sidelined rate-cut odds below 7% combined. Realistic challenges include softer April CPI (due May 12) or May nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the meeting, potentially reviving easing expectations if inflation cools toward the 2% goal.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Hacim
$7,948,979Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus around steady policy amid reaccelerating inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with core measures also firm, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, bolstering the Fed's March decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% target range and its dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment has sidelined rate-cut odds below 7% combined. Realistic challenges include softer April CPI (due May 12) or May nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the meeting, potentially reviving easing expectations if inflation cools toward the 2% goal.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$7,948,979Bitiş Tarihi
17 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus around steady policy amid reaccelerating inflation and labor market resilience. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with core measures also firm, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, bolstering the Fed's March decision to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% target range and its dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment has sidelined rate-cut odds below 7% combined. Realistic challenges include softer April CPI (due May 12) or May nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the meeting, potentially reviving easing expectations if inflation cools toward the 2% goal.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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