Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 3.5% federal funds rate (35.5% implied probability) and 3.75% (29.3%) as neck-and-neck leaders for end-2026, signaling tight competition amid hawkish repricing after March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—far above 2.4% prior—fueled by 10.9% energy gains and 21.2% gasoline spike. This tempers expectations for cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, loosely tracking the March FOMC dot plot's 3.4% median despite steady 4.3% unemployment and 2.9% annualized core trends. Key differentiators hinge on inflation persistence versus labor softening; upcoming April 28-29 FOMC (hold priced at 99%) and May CPI release could sway the balance toward fewer or no basis-point reductions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'nın sonunda Fed faizi ne olacak?
2026 'nın sonunda Fed faizi ne olacak?
%3,5 36%
%3,75 29.3%
%3,25 10%
%4,0 6.0%
$6,297,206 Hac.
$6,297,206 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
%1,0 veya daha düşük
1%
1,25
2%
%1,5
<1%
%1,75
1%
%2,0
1%
%2,25
1%
%2,5
1%
%2,75
2%
%3,0
4%
%3,25
10%
%3,5
36%
%3,75
29%
%4,0
6%
%4,25
1%
≥ %4,5
3%
%3,5 36%
%3,75 29.3%
%3,25 10%
%4,0 6.0%
$6,297,206 Hac.
$6,297,206 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
%1,0 veya daha düşük
$211,761 Hac.
1%
1,25
$111,883 Hac.
2%
%1,5
$124,708 Hac.
<1%
%1,75
$125,263 Hac.
1%
%2,0
$173,946 Hac.
1%
%2,25
$63,478 Hac.
1%
%2,5
$154,308 Hac.
1%
%2,75
$26,196 Hac.
2%
%3,0
$443,064 Hac.
4%
%3,25
$41,365 Hac.
10%
%3,5
$183,041 Hac.
36%
%3,75
$497,020 Hac.
29%
%4,0
$1,345,239 Hac.
6%
%4,25
$406,631 Hac.
1%
≥ %4,5
$2,389,304 Hac.
3%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 3.5% federal funds rate (35.5% implied probability) and 3.75% (29.3%) as neck-and-neck leaders for end-2026, signaling tight competition amid hawkish repricing after March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—far above 2.4% prior—fueled by 10.9% energy gains and 21.2% gasoline spike. This tempers expectations for cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, loosely tracking the March FOMC dot plot's 3.4% median despite steady 4.3% unemployment and 2.9% annualized core trends. Key differentiators hinge on inflation persistence versus labor softening; upcoming April 28-29 FOMC (hold priced at 99%) and May CPI release could sway the balance toward fewer or no basis-point reductions.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Hacim
$6,297,206Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 3.5% federal funds rate (35.5% implied probability) and 3.75% (29.3%) as neck-and-neck leaders for end-2026, signaling tight competition amid hawkish repricing after March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—far above 2.4% prior—fueled by 10.9% energy gains and 21.2% gasoline spike. This tempers expectations for cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, loosely tracking the March FOMC dot plot's 3.4% median despite steady 4.3% unemployment and 2.9% annualized core trends. Key differentiators hinge on inflation persistence versus labor softening; upcoming April 28-29 FOMC (hold priced at 99%) and May CPI release could sway the balance toward fewer or no basis-point reductions.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Hacim
$6,297,206Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 3.5% federal funds rate (35.5% implied probability) and 3.75% (29.3%) as neck-and-neck leaders for end-2026, signaling tight competition amid hawkish repricing after March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—far above 2.4% prior—fueled by 10.9% energy gains and 21.2% gasoline spike. This tempers expectations for cuts from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, loosely tracking the March FOMC dot plot's 3.4% median despite steady 4.3% unemployment and 2.9% annualized core trends. Key differentiators hinge on inflation persistence versus labor softening; upcoming April 28-29 FOMC (hold priced at 99%) and May CPI release could sway the balance toward fewer or no basis-point reductions.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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