Polymarket traders price an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that the federal funds target range—currently steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the March 17–18 FOMC decision—will hold or ease amid cooling labor market signals. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on April 10, fueled by a war-related oil shock, while unemployment ticked down to 4.3%; yet FOMC minutes released April 8 indicated only "some" openness to hikes despite raised 2026 inflation projections to 2.7%. The March dot plot still median-projects one 25-basis-point cut, prioritizing balanced risks over tightening. Key catalyst: April 28–29 FOMC meeting, where updated guidance could shift rate path expectations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$891,683 Hac.
$891,683 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
Evet
$891,683 Hac.
$891,683 Hac.
9 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that the federal funds target range—currently steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the March 17–18 FOMC decision—will hold or ease amid cooling labor market signals. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on April 10, fueled by a war-related oil shock, while unemployment ticked down to 4.3%; yet FOMC minutes released April 8 indicated only "some" openness to hikes despite raised 2026 inflation projections to 2.7%. The March dot plot still median-projects one 25-basis-point cut, prioritizing balanced risks over tightening. Key catalyst: April 28–29 FOMC meeting, where updated guidance could shift rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Hacim
$891,683Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that the federal funds target range—currently steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the March 17–18 FOMC decision—will hold or ease amid cooling labor market signals. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on April 10, fueled by a war-related oil shock, while unemployment ticked down to 4.3%; yet FOMC minutes released April 8 indicated only "some" openness to hikes despite raised 2026 inflation projections to 2.7%. The March dot plot still median-projects one 25-basis-point cut, prioritizing balanced risks over tightening. Key catalyst: April 28–29 FOMC meeting, where updated guidance could shift rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$891,683Bitiş Tarihi
9 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that the federal funds target range—currently steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the March 17–18 FOMC decision—will hold or ease amid cooling labor market signals. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on April 10, fueled by a war-related oil shock, while unemployment ticked down to 4.3%; yet FOMC minutes released April 8 indicated only "some" openness to hikes despite raised 2026 inflation projections to 2.7%. The March dot plot still median-projects one 25-basis-point cut, prioritizing balanced risks over tightening. Key catalyst: April 28–29 FOMC meeting, where updated guidance could shift rate path expectations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular