Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, with top outcomes clustered tightly around no vote by December 31 or withdrawal (27.1%), 55 yes votes (27.0%), 58 (26.7%), and 60+ (24.5%). Republicans hold a slim 53-47 Senate majority, but Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing holdout—tied to a DOJ probe into current chair Jerome Powell—threatens party unity, while Democrats push procedural delays ahead of the April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing. Warsh's April 13 financial disclosures, revealing $131-209 million in assets including over 30 cryptocurrency holdings he must divest, have intensified scrutiny on potential conflicts from Sens. Warren and others. Strong hearing testimony or probe resolution could secure 51-52 votes for simple majority confirmation, but filibuster risks demand 60 for cloture, keeping the race competitive; extended delays past Powell's May 15 term end heighten no-vote odds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi31 Aralık'a kadar oylama yok/Çekildi 27.1%
58 26.7%
60+ 20%
54 15.1%
$62,880 Hac.
$62,880 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
≤49
11%
50
4%
51
23%
52
23%
53
8%
54
15%
55
27%
56
2%
57
5%
58
27%
59
2%
60+
24%
31 Aralık'a kadar oylama yok/Çekildi
27%
31 Aralık'a kadar oylama yok/Çekildi 27.1%
58 26.7%
60+ 20%
54 15.1%
$62,880 Hac.
$62,880 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
≤49
$20,988 Hac.
11%
50
$0 Hac.
4%
51
$226 Hac.
23%
52
$0 Hac.
23%
53
$221 Hac.
8%
54
$233 Hac.
15%
55
$0 Hac.
27%
56
$52 Hac.
2%
57
$0 Hac.
5%
58
$0 Hac.
27%
59
$388 Hac.
2%
60+
$40,771 Hac.
24%
31 Aralık'a kadar oylama yok/Çekildi
$0 Hac.
27%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, with top outcomes clustered tightly around no vote by December 31 or withdrawal (27.1%), 55 yes votes (27.0%), 58 (26.7%), and 60+ (24.5%). Republicans hold a slim 53-47 Senate majority, but Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing holdout—tied to a DOJ probe into current chair Jerome Powell—threatens party unity, while Democrats push procedural delays ahead of the April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing. Warsh's April 13 financial disclosures, revealing $131-209 million in assets including over 30 cryptocurrency holdings he must divest, have intensified scrutiny on potential conflicts from Sens. Warren and others. Strong hearing testimony or probe resolution could secure 51-52 votes for simple majority confirmation, but filibuster risks demand 60 for cloture, keeping the race competitive; extended delays past Powell's May 15 term end heighten no-vote odds.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Hacim
$62,880Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, with top outcomes clustered tightly around no vote by December 31 or withdrawal (27.1%), 55 yes votes (27.0%), 58 (26.7%), and 60+ (24.5%). Republicans hold a slim 53-47 Senate majority, but Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing holdout—tied to a DOJ probe into current chair Jerome Powell—threatens party unity, while Democrats push procedural delays ahead of the April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing. Warsh's April 13 financial disclosures, revealing $131-209 million in assets including over 30 cryptocurrency holdings he must divest, have intensified scrutiny on potential conflicts from Sens. Warren and others. Strong hearing testimony or probe resolution could secure 51-52 votes for simple majority confirmation, but filibuster risks demand 60 for cloture, keeping the race competitive; extended delays past Powell's May 15 term end heighten no-vote odds.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$62,880Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, with top outcomes clustered tightly around no vote by December 31 or withdrawal (27.1%), 55 yes votes (27.0%), 58 (26.7%), and 60+ (24.5%). Republicans hold a slim 53-47 Senate majority, but Sen. Thom Tillis's ongoing holdout—tied to a DOJ probe into current chair Jerome Powell—threatens party unity, while Democrats push procedural delays ahead of the April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing. Warsh's April 13 financial disclosures, revealing $131-209 million in assets including over 30 cryptocurrency holdings he must divest, have intensified scrutiny on potential conflicts from Sens. Warren and others. Strong hearing testimony or probe resolution could secure 51-52 votes for simple majority confirmation, but filibuster risks demand 60 for cloture, keeping the race competitive; extended delays past Powell's May 15 term end heighten no-vote odds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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