Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Joe Biden at 94% implied probability as the most likely target of a public insult from President Trump by April 30, driven by the former president's routine disparagement of Biden on Truth Social amid persistent campaign-era rhetoric and policy disputes. Keir Starmer follows at around 80%, possibly reflecting transatlantic tensions over foreign policy, while Barack Obama sits at 68% based on historical patterns of personal attacks. Recent catalysts include Trump's past-week rebukes of Pope Leo XIV—calling him "weak on crime" and too liberal after papal criticism of U.S. threats against Iran—pricing that outcome at 35%, and his accusation that ally Giorgia Meloni lacks courage for declining to join potential strikes. With two weeks remaining, traders watch Trump's frequent Truth Social posts and any G7 or diplomatic developments for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$53,267 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Joe Biden
98%
Keir Starmer
63%
Barack Obama
64%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
49%
Pope Leo XIV
30%
Tucker Carlson
29%
Megyn Kelly
29%
Alex Jones
15%
Pam Bondi
8%
Viktor Orbán
5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
Elon Musk
4%
Vladimir Putin
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Melania Trump
1%
Candace Owens
43%
$53,267 Hac.
Joe Biden
$22,692 Hac.
98%
Keir Starmer
$40 Hac.
63%
Barack Obama
$1,337 Hac.
64%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$167 Hac.
49%
Pope Leo XIV
$1,478 Hac.
30%
Tucker Carlson
$754 Hac.
29%
Megyn Kelly
$0 Hac.
29%
Alex Jones
$1,314 Hac.
15%
Pam Bondi
$438 Hac.
8%
Viktor Orbán
$3,051 Hac.
5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$5,956 Hac.
5%
Elon Musk
$817 Hac.
4%
Vladimir Putin
$1,438 Hac.
3%
J.D. Vance
$3,102 Hac.
2%
Xi Jinping
$5,761 Hac.
2%
Melania Trump
$5,124 Hac.
1%
Candace Owens
$47 Hac.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Joe Biden at 94% implied probability as the most likely target of a public insult from President Trump by April 30, driven by the former president's routine disparagement of Biden on Truth Social amid persistent campaign-era rhetoric and policy disputes. Keir Starmer follows at around 80%, possibly reflecting transatlantic tensions over foreign policy, while Barack Obama sits at 68% based on historical patterns of personal attacks. Recent catalysts include Trump's past-week rebukes of Pope Leo XIV—calling him "weak on crime" and too liberal after papal criticism of U.S. threats against Iran—pricing that outcome at 35%, and his accusation that ally Giorgia Meloni lacks courage for declining to join potential strikes. With two weeks remaining, traders watch Trump's frequent Truth Social posts and any G7 or diplomatic developments for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Hacim
$53,267Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Joe Biden at 94% implied probability as the most likely target of a public insult from President Trump by April 30, driven by the former president's routine disparagement of Biden on Truth Social amid persistent campaign-era rhetoric and policy disputes. Keir Starmer follows at around 80%, possibly reflecting transatlantic tensions over foreign policy, while Barack Obama sits at 68% based on historical patterns of personal attacks. Recent catalysts include Trump's past-week rebukes of Pope Leo XIV—calling him "weak on crime" and too liberal after papal criticism of U.S. threats against Iran—pricing that outcome at 35%, and his accusation that ally Giorgia Meloni lacks courage for declining to join potential strikes. With two weeks remaining, traders watch Trump's frequent Truth Social posts and any G7 or diplomatic developments for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$53,267Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Joe Biden at 94% implied probability as the most likely target of a public insult from President Trump by April 30, driven by the former president's routine disparagement of Biden on Truth Social amid persistent campaign-era rhetoric and policy disputes. Keir Starmer follows at around 80%, possibly reflecting transatlantic tensions over foreign policy, while Barack Obama sits at 68% based on historical patterns of personal attacks. Recent catalysts include Trump's past-week rebukes of Pope Leo XIV—calling him "weak on crime" and too liberal after papal criticism of U.S. threats against Iran—pricing that outcome at 35%, and his accusation that ally Giorgia Meloni lacks courage for declining to join potential strikes. With two weeks remaining, traders watch Trump's frequent Truth Social posts and any G7 or diplomatic developments for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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