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Seçimler·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

Market icon
Seçimler·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

Mejia 20-25% 86%

Mejia <20% 9%

Mejia 25-30% 2.5%

Mejia 30-35% 2.4%

Polymarket

$5,626 Hac.

Mejia 20-25% 86%

Mejia <20% 9%

Mejia 25-30% 2.5%

Mejia 30-35% 2.4%

Polymarket

$5,626 Hac.

Mejia 40%+

$346 Hac.

2%

Mejia 35-40%

$980 Hac.

2%

Mejia 30-35%

$896 Hac.

2%

Mejia 25-30%

$888 Hac.

3%

Mejia 20-25%

$1,287 Hac.

86%

Mejia <20%

$686 Hac.

9%

Other

$543 Hac.

<1%

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Early results from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District show Democrat Analilia Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 63-37% with 76% of precincts reporting—a 26-point margin—driving trader consensus toward a final Mejia victory margin of 20-25 percentage points at 85.5% implied probability, as mail-in ballots pending post-election could modestly narrow the gap. This aligns with pre-election GBAO polling (Mejia 53%, Hathaway 36%) and the district's D+8 presidential lean from 2024, where Mikie Sherrill secured a D+15 House win before vacating for governor. Low-turnout special elections in Democratic-leaning suburban seats often yield comfortable incumbent-party margins amid strong labor endorsements for Mejia. Certification awaits, with the winner serving through January 2027.

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Hacim
$5,626
Bitiş Tarihi
16 Nis 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Early results from the April 16 special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District show Democrat Analilia Mejia leading Republican Joe Hathaway 63-37% with 76% of precincts reporting—a 26-point margin—driving trader consensus toward a final Mejia victory margin of 20-25 percentage points at 85.5% implied probability, as mail-in ballots pending post-election could modestly narrow the gap. This aligns with pre-election GBAO polling (Mejia 53%, Hathaway 36%) and the district's D+8 presidential lean from 2024, where Mikie Sherrill secured a D+15 House win before vacating for governor. Low-turnout special elections in Democratic-leaning suburban seats often yield comfortable incumbent-party margins amid strong labor endorsements for Mejia. Certification awaits, with the winner serving through January 2027.

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Hacim
$5,626
Bitiş Tarihi
16 Nis 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 7 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 86% ile "Mejia 20-25%", ardından 9% ile "Mejia <20%" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 86¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 86% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

"NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" Polymarket'te yeni oluşturulmuş bir piyasadır, Apr 16, 2026 tarihinde açıldı. Erken bir piyasa olarak, ilk yatırımcılar arasında yer alarak oranları belirleme ve piyasanın ilk fiyat sinyallerini oluşturma fırsatına sahipsiniz. Ayrıca piyasa zaman içinde ilgi kazandıkça hacmi ve işlem aktivitesini takip etmek için bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyebilirsiniz.

"NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 7 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" için mevcut favori 86% ile "Mejia 20-25%"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 86% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 9% ile "Mejia <20%"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.