Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slim 49.5% probability for Candidate M to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election, closely trailed by Paloma Valencia at 41.5% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 37.5%, reflecting a fragmented race ahead of the May 31 first-round vote and potential June runoff. Recent AtlasIntel polling from April 6-9 shows Cepeda leading at 39% but vulnerable in head-to-head matchups, while Valencia gained from her strong March 8 primary performance amid congressional fragmentation that denied President Petro's allies a majority. Economic pressures, highlighted by Petro's April 8 emergency declaration, security concerns, and undecided voters in battleground regions sustain the tight contest; endorsements, debates, or coalition shifts could create separation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiKolombiya Başkanlık Seçimi
Kolombiya Başkanlık Seçimi
Paloma Valencia 41.5%
Iván Cepeda Castro 38%
Abelardo de la Espriella 19%
Claudia López (BAĞ) <1%
$20,283,443 Hac.
$20,283,443 Hac.
Paloma Valencia
42%
Iván Cepeda Castro
38%
Abelardo de la Espriella
19%
Claudia López (BAĞ)
<1%
Sergio Fajardo (DC)
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)
<1%
Carlos Felipe Córdoba
<1%
Vicky Dávila (BAĞ)
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo (BGMS)
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán (NL)
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%
Daniel Quintero
<1%
Roy Barreras
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
David Luna Sánchez (BAĞ)
<1%
Paloma Valencia 41.5%
Iván Cepeda Castro 38%
Abelardo de la Espriella 19%
Claudia López (BAĞ) <1%
$20,283,443 Hac.
$20,283,443 Hac.
Paloma Valencia
42%
Iván Cepeda Castro
38%
Abelardo de la Espriella
19%
Claudia López (BAĞ)
<1%
Sergio Fajardo (DC)
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)
<1%
Carlos Felipe Córdoba
<1%
Vicky Dávila (BAĞ)
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo (BGMS)
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán (NL)
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%
Daniel Quintero
<1%
Roy Barreras
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
David Luna Sánchez (BAĞ)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Piyasa Açıldı: Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slim 49.5% probability for Candidate M to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election, closely trailed by Paloma Valencia at 41.5% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 37.5%, reflecting a fragmented race ahead of the May 31 first-round vote and potential June runoff. Recent AtlasIntel polling from April 6-9 shows Cepeda leading at 39% but vulnerable in head-to-head matchups, while Valencia gained from her strong March 8 primary performance amid congressional fragmentation that denied President Petro's allies a majority. Economic pressures, highlighted by Petro's April 8 emergency declaration, security concerns, and undecided voters in battleground regions sustain the tight contest; endorsements, debates, or coalition shifts could create separation.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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