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Ekonomi·Business

2026 'da kaç Fed faiz indirimi olacak?

Market icon
Ekonomi·Business

2026 'da kaç Fed faiz indirimi olacak?

0 (0 bp) 39.0%

1 (25 baz puan) 27%

2 (50 baz puan) 16%

3 (75 baz puan) 9%

Polymarket

$19,242,601 Hac.

0 (0 bp) 39.0%

1 (25 baz puan) 27%

2 (50 baz puan) 16%

3 (75 baz puan) 9%

Polymarket

$19,242,601 Hac.

0 (0 bp)

$3,199,350 Hac.

39%

1 (25 baz puan)

$1,039,683 Hac.

27%

2 (50 baz puan)

$1,011,482 Hac.

16%

3 (75 baz puan)

$934,716 Hac.

9%

4 (100 baz puan)

$966,252 Hac.

4%

5 (125 baz puan)

$1,062,071 Hac.

1%

6 (150 baz puan)

$2,098,329 Hac.

1%

7 (175 baz puan)

$947,372 Hac.

<1%

8 (200 baz puan)

$1,221,744 Hac.

<1%

9 (225 baz puan)

$1,214,648 Hac.

<1%

10 (250 baz puan)

$1,700,740 Hac.

<1%

11 (275 baz puan)

$2,020,599 Hac.

<1%

12+ (300+ baz puan)

$1,834,734 Hac.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 39.1% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 26.5% odds for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict. This aligns with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median end-2026 federal funds rate projection of 3.4%, implying just one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. Strong March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes released April 8 underscore persistent inflation risks and labor resilience, dimming multi-cut prospects. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further guidance amid elevated Treasury yields.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Hacim
$19,242,601
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 39.1% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with 26.5% odds for one 25 basis point reduction, reflecting hawkish repricing after March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict. This aligns with the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median end-2026 federal funds rate projection of 3.4%, implying just one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range held steady for the second meeting. Strong March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes released April 8 underscore persistent inflation risks and labor resilience, dimming multi-cut prospects. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC for further guidance amid elevated Treasury yields.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Hacim
$19,242,601
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"2026 'da kaç Fed faiz indirimi olacak?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 13 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 39% ile "0 (0 bp)", ardından 27% ile "1 (25 baz puan)" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 39¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 39% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "2026 'da kaç Fed faiz indirimi olacak?" toplam $19.2 million işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Sep 29, 2025 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"2026 'da kaç Fed faiz indirimi olacak?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 13 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"2026 'da kaç Fed faiz indirimi olacak?" için mevcut favori 39% ile "0 (0 bp)"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 39% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 27% ile "1 (25 baz puan)"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"2026 'da kaç Fed faiz indirimi olacak?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.