Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 GDP growth of 4.5-5.0% year-over-year, aligning with Reuters poll median of 4.8%—a rebound from Q4 2025's three-year low of 4.5%—bolstered by January-February industrial output surging 6.3% and high-tech manufacturing at 13.1%, alongside robust early exports. March developments tempered optimism, with export growth slowing sharply to 2.5% from 21.8% prior and manufacturing PMI edging to modest expansion at 50.4, while Iran war risks elevate oil prices and dim full-year forecasts to 4.6%. Official National Bureau of Statistics release due April 16-17 could catalyze shifts ahead of the 4.5-5% annual target.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi%4,5-%5,0 73%
%5,0-%5,5 26%
%4,0-%4,5 1.3%
%5,5-%6,0 <1%
$401,276 Hac.
$401,276 Hac.
17 Nis 2026
%3,5'in altında
<1%
%3,5-%4,0
<1%
%4,0-%4,5
1%
%4,5-%5,0
73%
%5,0-%5,5
26%
%5,5-%6,0
1%
%6,0+
<1%
%4,5-%5,0 73%
%5,0-%5,5 26%
%4,0-%4,5 1.3%
%5,5-%6,0 <1%
$401,276 Hac.
$401,276 Hac.
17 Nis 2026
%3,5'in altında
$40,599 Hac.
<1%
%3,5-%4,0
$75,006 Hac.
<1%
%4,0-%4,5
$60,310 Hac.
1%
%4,5-%5,0
$48,088 Hac.
73%
%5,0-%5,5
$53,467 Hac.
26%
%5,5-%6,0
$86,464 Hac.
1%
%6,0+
$37,343 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 GDP growth of 4.5-5.0% year-over-year, aligning with Reuters poll median of 4.8%—a rebound from Q4 2025's three-year low of 4.5%—bolstered by January-February industrial output surging 6.3% and high-tech manufacturing at 13.1%, alongside robust early exports. March developments tempered optimism, with export growth slowing sharply to 2.5% from 21.8% prior and manufacturing PMI edging to modest expansion at 50.4, while Iran war risks elevate oil prices and dim full-year forecasts to 4.6%. Official National Bureau of Statistics release due April 16-17 could catalyze shifts ahead of the 4.5-5% annual target.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Hacim
$401,276Bitiş Tarihi
17 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 GDP growth of 4.5-5.0% year-over-year, aligning with Reuters poll median of 4.8%—a rebound from Q4 2025's three-year low of 4.5%—bolstered by January-February industrial output surging 6.3% and high-tech manufacturing at 13.1%, alongside robust early exports. March developments tempered optimism, with export growth slowing sharply to 2.5% from 21.8% prior and manufacturing PMI edging to modest expansion at 50.4, while Iran war risks elevate oil prices and dim full-year forecasts to 4.6%. Official National Bureau of Statistics release due April 16-17 could catalyze shifts ahead of the 4.5-5% annual target.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Hacim
$401,276Bitiş Tarihi
17 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72.5% implied probability for China Q1 2026 GDP growth of 4.5-5.0% year-over-year, aligning with Reuters poll median of 4.8%—a rebound from Q4 2025's three-year low of 4.5%—bolstered by January-February industrial output surging 6.3% and high-tech manufacturing at 13.1%, alongside robust early exports. March developments tempered optimism, with export growth slowing sharply to 2.5% from 21.8% prior and manufacturing PMI edging to modest expansion at 50.4, while Iran war risks elevate oil prices and dim full-year forecasts to 4.6%. Official National Bureau of Statistics release due April 16-17 could catalyze shifts ahead of the 4.5-5% annual target.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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